Insurgency and Credible Commitment in Autocracies and Democracies

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dc.creatorKeefer, Philip
dc.date2012-06-04T17:52:44Z
dc.date2012-06-04T17:52:44Z
dc.date2007-04
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T01:18:35Z
dc.descriptionThis paper suggests a new factor that makes civil war more likely: the inability of political actors to make credible promises to broad segments of society. Lacking this ability, both elected and unelected governments pursue public policies that leave citizens less well-off and more prone to revolt. At the same time, these actors have a reduced ability to build an anti-insurgency capacity in the first place, since they are less able to prevent anti-insurgents from themselves mounting coups. But while reducing the risk of conflict overall, increasing credibility can, over some range, worsen the effects of natural resources and ethnic fragmentation on civil war. Empirical tests using various measures of political credibility support these conclusions.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/04/7499620/insurgency-credible-commitment-autocracies-democracies
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/7012
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4185
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/416925
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper; No. 4185
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectARMED CONFLICT
dc.subjectAUTOCRACY
dc.subjectBARRIERS TO ENTRY
dc.subjectCANDIDATES
dc.subjectCITIZEN
dc.subjectCITIZENS
dc.subjectCIVIL WAR
dc.subjectCIVIL WARS
dc.subjectCOMMUNISM
dc.subjectCOMPETITION
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectCONFLICT COUNTRIES
dc.subjectCONFLICT ­ COUNTRIES
dc.subjectCONFLICTS
dc.subjectDECISION MAKING
dc.subjectDEGREES OF FREEDOM
dc.subjectDEMOCRACIES
dc.subjectDEMOCRACY
dc.subjectDEMOCRACY SCORE
dc.subjectDEMOCRATIC REGIMES
dc.subjectDETERMINANT OF INCOME PER CAPITA
dc.subjectDISLOYALTY
dc.subjectELECTIONS
dc.subjectELECTORATE
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES
dc.subjectETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION
dc.subjectETHNIC FRAGMENTATION
dc.subjectETHNIC GROUPS
dc.subjectEXPECTED VALUE
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectFAMILY MEMBERS
dc.subjectFAMILY TIES
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT CAPACITY
dc.subjectHIGH RISK
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME PER CAPITA
dc.subjectMEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT
dc.subjectMILITARY SPENDING
dc.subjectNATURAL ENDOWMENTS
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCE
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectOPPONENTS
dc.subjectPARLIAMENT
dc.subjectPATRONAGE
dc.subjectPOLICY MAKING
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
dc.subjectPOLITICAL CONFLICT
dc.subjectPOLITICAL DECISION
dc.subjectPOLITICAL DECISION MAKING
dc.subjectPOLITICAL INSTITUTIONS
dc.subjectPOLITICAL LEADERS
dc.subjectPOLITICAL PARTIES
dc.subjectPOLITICAL SYSTEMS
dc.subjectPOLITICAL VARIABLES
dc.subjectPOLITICIANS
dc.subjectPOPULAR SUPPORT
dc.subjectPOPULATION
dc.subjectPOPULATION SIZE
dc.subjectPOST-CONFLICT
dc.subjectPRINT MEDIA
dc.subjectPROGRESS
dc.subjectPUBLIC GOOD
dc.subjectPUBLIC INFORMATION
dc.subjectPUBLIC POLICY
dc.subjectPUBLIC SERVICES
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER PARITY
dc.subjectQUALITY OF EDUCATION
dc.subjectREBEL MOVEMENTS
dc.subjectREBELLION
dc.subjectRELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION
dc.subjectRELIGIOUS GROUPS
dc.subjectRESPECT
dc.subjectRICHER COUNTRIES
dc.subjectRISK OF CONFLICT
dc.subjectRULE OF LAW
dc.subjectSECONDARY SCHOOL
dc.subjectSEGMENTS OF SOCIETY
dc.subjectSOCIAL CONDITIONS
dc.subjectSOCIAL GROUP
dc.subjectSOCIAL POLARIZATION
dc.subjectSOCIAL WELFARE
dc.subjectSOVEREIGNTY
dc.subjectVOTERS
dc.subjectWARS
dc.titleInsurgency and Credible Commitment in Autocracies and Democracies

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