Insurgency and Credible Commitment in Autocracies and Democracies
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper suggests a new factor that
makes civil war more likely: the inability of political
actors to make credible promises to broad segments of
society. Lacking this ability, both elected and unelected
governments pursue public policies that leave citizens less
well-off and more prone to revolt. At the same time, these
actors have a reduced ability to build an anti-insurgency
capacity in the first place, since they are less able to
prevent anti-insurgents from themselves mounting coups. But
while reducing the risk of conflict overall, increasing
credibility can, over some range, worsen the effects of
natural resources and ethnic fragmentation on civil war.
Empirical tests using various measures of political
credibility support these conclusions.
Palabras clave
ARMED CONFLICT, AUTOCRACY, BARRIERS TO ENTRY, CANDIDATES, CITIZEN, CITIZENS, CIVIL WAR, CIVIL WARS, COMMUNISM, COMPETITION, COMPETITIVENESS, CONFLICT COUNTRIES, CONFLICT COUNTRIES, CONFLICTS, DECISION MAKING, DEGREES OF FREEDOM, DEMOCRACIES, DEMOCRACY, DEMOCRACY SCORE, DEMOCRATIC REGIMES, DETERMINANT OF INCOME PER CAPITA, DISLOYALTY, ELECTIONS, ELECTORATE, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION, ETHNIC FRAGMENTATION, ETHNIC GROUPS, EXPECTED VALUE, EXPORTS, FAMILY MEMBERS, FAMILY TIES, GDP, GOVERNMENT CAPACITY, HIGH RISK, INCOME, INCOME PER CAPITA, MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT, MILITARY SPENDING, NATURAL ENDOWMENTS, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, OPPONENTS, PARLIAMENT, PATRONAGE, POLICY MAKING, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL CONFLICT, POLITICAL DECISION, POLITICAL DECISION MAKING, POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS, POLITICAL LEADERS, POLITICAL PARTIES, POLITICAL SYSTEMS, POLITICAL VARIABLES, POLITICIANS, POPULAR SUPPORT, POPULATION, POPULATION SIZE, POST-CONFLICT, PRINT MEDIA, PROGRESS, PUBLIC GOOD, PUBLIC INFORMATION, PUBLIC POLICY, PUBLIC SERVICES, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, QUALITY OF EDUCATION, REBEL MOVEMENTS, REBELLION, RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION, RELIGIOUS GROUPS, RESPECT, RICHER COUNTRIES, RISK OF CONFLICT, RULE OF LAW, SECONDARY SCHOOL, SEGMENTS OF SOCIETY, SOCIAL CONDITIONS, SOCIAL GROUP, SOCIAL POLARIZATION, SOCIAL WELFARE, SOVEREIGNTY, VOTERS, WARS