Bangladesh Development Update, April 2015

World Bank

Bangladesh Development Update, April 2015

Autores

World Bank

Editor

Dhaka

Descripción

This report highlights recent economic updates in Bangladesh as of April 2015. Economic growth in Bangladesh was gaining momentum in the first half of FY15. Capacity utilization improved and investments were showing some signs of recovery. This growth was also job-friendly. The 12-monthly-moving average inflation decelerated from 7.6 percent in February 2014 to 6.8 percent in February 2015. The resilience of the Bangladesh economy continues to be tested by faltering political stability, weak global markets, and structural constraints. These are inhibiting the economy s income growth as well as progress on shared prosperity. Despite the emergence of a $1.3 billion deficit in the current account in the first seven months of FY15, the surplus in the overall balance of payments has been sustained, leading to continued accumulation of official foreign exchange reserves to prevent nominal exchange rate appreciation. Reserves are at a comfortable level at over 6 months of imports of goods and services. Fiscal policy has remained consistent with macroeconomic stability. Tax revenue growth has been weaker than targeted while expenditure have also been short due as usual to an implementation shortfall. The projected recovery in global growth, particularly in the United States and the Euro Zone, and continued softness in international commodity prices, bode well for Bangladesh. The country will need to restore political stability and implement faster structural reforms to capitalize on these opportunities. The potential GDP growth rate is on a declining path due to declining labor force growth and stagnant productivity growth, as well as the rate of capital accumulation. Raising the low Female Labor Force Participation (FLFP) rate offers on opportunity to boost the economy s potential growth rate. Moving forward, the biggest challenge remains ensuring durable political stability. This is a precondition for accelerated, inclusive, and sustainable growth.

Palabras clave

ACCELERATOR, ACCELERATOR EFFECT, ACCESS TO INFORMATION, ACCOUNTING, ADVERSE IMPACT, AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRICULTURE, AIR, ARREARS, ASSET PRICE, ASSET QUALITY, BALANCE OF PAYMENT, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BALANCE SHEETS, BANK BORROWING, BANK FINANCING, BANK INTEREST RATES, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SYSTEM, BANKRUPTCY, BANKRUPTCY LAW, BASE YEAR, BENCHMARK, BENCHMARK STOCK, BINDING CONSTRAINT, BORROWER, BROAD MONEY, BUDGET DEFICIT, BUSINESS CYCLE, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL MARKET, CASH RESERVE, CASH RESERVE RATIO, COLLECTIVE ACTION, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSUMER GOODS, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, CREDIT FLOWS, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT PROGRAMS, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, DAMAGES, DEBT, DECENTRALIZATION, DECLINE IN INVESTMENTS, DEFICITS, DEMAND FOR CREDIT, DEPOSIT, DEREGULATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT AGENCY, DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, DIESEL, DISBURSEMENT, DISBURSEMENTS, DIVIDENDS, DOMESTIC CREDIT, DOMESTIC MARKET, DRIVERS, DURABLE, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DEMAND, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ECONOMIC TIME SERIES, ECONOMIC TRENDS, ECONOMIC VALUE, ELASTICITY, ELASTICITY OF DEMAND, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKETS, ENFORCEMENT MECHANISMS, ENTRY BARRIERS, EQUIPMENT, EXCESS LIQUIDITY, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORTERS, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL DEBT, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL STABILITY, FINANCIAL WEAKNESSES, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED CAPITAL, FIXED INCOME, FIXED INVESTMENT, FORECASTS, FOREIGN CAPITAL, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INVESTMENTS, FRAUDS, FUEL, FUEL PRICES, GDP, GDP DEFLATOR, GENERALIZED SYSTEM OF PREFERENCES, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL MARKET, GLOBAL MARKETS, GOVERNMENT BORROWING, GOVERNMENT FUNDING, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS VALUE, GROWTH RATE, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HUMAN CAPITAL, IMPORT COST, INCOME, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME TAX, INCREASING RETURNS, INFLATION, INFLATION RATE, INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS, INHERITANCE, INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY, INSURANCE, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL MARKET, INVENTORIES, INVENTORY, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT RATES, INVESTMENT RESOURCES, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LAND OWNERSHIP, LAND RECORDS, LEGAL FRAMEWORK, LIQUIDITY, LOAN, LOAN AMOUNT, LOAN DEFAULTS, LOCAL MARKETS, LOW INTEREST RATES, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET ANALYSTS, MARKET INDEX, MARKET INDICES, MARKET PARTICIPANT, MARKET PRICE, MARKET PRICES, MICRO-CREDIT, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICIES, MONETARY POLICY, MONOPOLY, MULTIPLIER EFFECTS, NATIONAL ECONOMIES, NATIONAL SAVING, NATURAL DISASTER, NATURAL DISASTERS, NEGATIVE SHOCK, NOISE, NOMINAL INTEREST RATE, NONPERFORMING LOANS, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICES, OUTSTANDING CREDIT, OWNERSHIP DATA, PETROLEUM PRODUCTS, POLICY RESPONSE, POLITICAL STABILITY, POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY, POPULATION GROWTH, PORTFOLIO, PRICE MOVEMENTS, PRICE VOLATILITY, PRIVATE BANKS, PRIVATE CREDIT, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE INVESTMENTS, PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, REMITTANCE, REMITTANCES, RESERVE, RETURN, ROADS, SAFETY, SAFETY NET, SAFETY NETS, SETTLEMENT, SOLVENCY, STOCK EXCHANGE, STOCKS, TAX, TAX COLLECTION, TAX RATE, TAX REVENUE, TAX REVENUES, TOLL, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TOTAL REVENUE, TRADE CREDIT, TRADE FINANCE, TRADING, TRANSACTION, TRANSACTION COSTS, TRANSPORT, TRANSPORT FARES, TRANSPORT SECTOR, TRANSPORTATION, TREASURY, TREASURY BILL, TREASURY BILL RATE, TRIPS, TROUGH, TRUE, TRUST FUND, TURNOVER, VALUE ADDED, WAGE DIFFERENTIALS, WAGES, WORKING CAPITAL