The Surprising Effects of the Great Recession : Losers and Winners in Thailand in 2008-2009
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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In 2009, buffeted by the great
recession, Thai gross domestic product fell by 2.3 percent.
Using monthly data from the socio-economic surveys of
2007-2010, this paper finds, after controlling for household
variables, that real consumption per capita rose in 2009
relative to 2008 for most groups, including the poor, urban
and rural households, men, women, and children. The losers
were residents of Bangkok, especially those aged 20-29, and
those working in sales and services. During the recession
year of 2009, school enrollment rates did not fall, and
durable goods purchases actually rose; households probably
reduced their savings, and also benefitted from the lower
food prices that prevailed in 2009. A simulation exercise
based on the slowdown in growth of gross domestic product
would have missed these effects, as would models based
solely on readily-available data series. This points to the
importance of country-specific policy analysis, rooted in
timely local evidence, including household survey data.
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AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURE, ASSETS, CHECKS, CONSUMER PRICE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMER SPENDING, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, CONSUMPTION LEVELS, CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA, CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING, CONSUMPTION SPENDING, CREDIT GUARANTEES, CURRENCY, CURRENCY DEVALUATION, CURRENT ACCOUNT, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DEVALUATION, DEVELOPMENT BANK, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS, DOLLAR VALUE, DUMMY VARIABLES, DURABLE, DURABLE GOODS, DURABLES, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC INDEX, ECONOMIC INDICES, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC SHOCKS, ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN, ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, ECONOMIC STRUCTURES, ECONOMIC SURVEYS, ENERGY PRICE, ENERGY PRICES, EQUIPMENT, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT GROWTH RATES, EXPORT VOLUME, EXPORTER, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FARM EMPLOYMENT, FARM HOUSEHOLDS, FARMER, FEMALE WORKERS, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED EFFECTS, FOOD CONSUMPTION, FOOD PRICES, GDP, GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATES, HOLDING, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD LIVING STANDARDS, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILDREN, IMPORT, IMPORT PRICE, IMPORTS, INCOME, INTEREST PAYMENTS, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVESTMENT SPENDING, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LIVING STANDARDS, M1, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MEAT, MERCHANDISE, MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, MILK, NET EXPORTS, NOMINAL INCOME, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, PER CAPITA INCOME, PIH, POLICY RESPONSES, POOR FARMERS, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POOR REGION, POORER HOUSEHOLDS, POVERTY ANALYSIS, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE INDEXES, PRICE OF OIL, PRICES INDEXES, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PURCHASING, PURCHASING POWER, RAPID GROWTH, REAL CONSUMPTION, REAL GDP, RECESSION, RELATIVE PRICES, REMITTANCE, RURAL AREAS, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, RURAL HOUSEHOLDS, RURAL RESIDENTS, SALES, SCHOOLING, SLOWDOWN, SPREAD, STANDARD OF LIVING, SUBSISTENCE, SUBSTITUTE, TEST OF EQUALITY, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS, WAGES, WEIGHTS, WORLD ECONOMY