The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Kenyan Crop Agriculture : A Ricardian Approach
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper measures the economic impact
of climate on crops in Kenya. The analysis is based on
cross-sectional climate, hydrological, soil, and household
level data for a sample of 816 households, and uses a
seasonal Ricardian model. Estimated marginal impacts of
climate variables suggest that global warming is harmful for
agricultural productivity and that changes in temperature
are much more important than changes in precipitation. This
result is confirmed by the predicted impact of various
climate change scenarios on agriculture. The results further
confirm that the temperature component of global warming is
much more important than precipitation. The authors analyze
farmers' perceptions of climate variations and their
adaptation to these, and also constraints on adaptation
mechanisms. The results suggest that farmers in Kenya are
aware of short-term climate change, that most of them have
noticed an increase in temperatures, and that some have
taken adaptive measures.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURAL DIVERSITY, AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION, AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS, AGRICULTURE, AIR, ALLUVIAL SOILS, ALTITUDE, ARABLE AREAS, ARABLE LAND, ARID ZONES, ATMOSPHERE, AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL, BARLEY, BEANS, CAPITA INCOMES, CASH CROPS, CASHEW NUTS, CASSAVA, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE EFFECTS, CLIMATE FORECASTS, CLIMATE RESEARCH, CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATE VARIABLES, CLIMATE VARIATION, CLIMATE ZONES, CLIMATES, CLIMATIC CONDITIONS, CLIMATIC ZONES, CLOUDS, CO2, COCONUT, COFFEE, COMMODITIES, CORN, COTTON, CROP, CROP AGRICULTURE, CROP DAMAGE, CROP DIVERSIFICATION, CROP MIX, CROP PRODUCTION, CROP VARIETIES, CROP YIELD, CROP YIELDS, CROPLANDS, CROPS, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DRAINAGE, DROUGHT, DRY LAND, ECOLOGICAL ZONE, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, ECONOMICS, EL NINO, ELASTICITIES, ELASTICITY, EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS, ENVIRONMENTAL, ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, EVAPORATION, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, FAO, FARM, FARM INCOMES, FARM MANAGEMENT, FARM REVENUES, FARMER, FARMERS, FARMING, FARMING SYSTEMS, FARMS, FERTILIZATION, FERTILIZERS, FIELD CROPS, FLOODING, FLOODS, FOOD CROPS, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD SECURITY, FOREST, FORESTRY, FORESTS, FROST, GCM, GDP, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT, GLOBAL WARMING, GRAZING, GREENHOUSE GASES, GROUNDWATER, HABITAT, HORTICULTURAL CROPS, HYDROLOGICAL DATA, HYDROLOGY, HYDROMETEOROLOGY, INCOME, INPUT PRICES, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, IPCC, IRRIGATION, LABOR FORCE, LAKES, LAND USE, LAND VALUE, LOAM SOILS, MAIZE, MAIZE PRODUCTION, MARKET PRICES, METEOROLOGY, MIDDLE EAST, MILLET, MIXED CROPPING, MULTIPLE CROPPING, NATURAL CAPITAL, NITROGEN, OCEANS, PASTORALISM, PASTORALISTS, PHOSPHOROUS, PHOTOSYNTHESIS, PLANT BREEDING, PLANTING, PLANTING DATES, POPULATION GROWTH, POTASSIUM, POTENTIAL IMPACTS, PRECIPITATION, PRODUCERS, PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS, PRODUCTIVITY, RAIN, RAINFALL, RAINY SEASON, RANGELANDS, RECYCLING, RICE, RICE PRODUCTION, RIVER, RIVER BASINS, RIVERS, ROCKS, RUNOFF, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, SAHEL, SATELLITES, SAVINGS, SEA, SEED, SHADING, SMALL FARMERS, SNOW, SNOW COVER, SOIL, SOIL CLASSIFICATION, SOIL CONSERVATION, SOIL EROSION, SOIL FERTILITY, SOIL TYPE, SOIL TYPES, SOILS, SORGHUM, SPRING, SUGARCANE, SUNFLOWER, SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, SUSTAINABLE WATER, TEA, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE CHANGES, TEMPERATURE DATA, TREES, VARIABLE COSTS, VEGETATION, WAGE RATES, WATER HARVESTING, WATER RESOURCE, WATER RESOURCES, WATER SUPPLY, WATER USE, WEATHER, WEATHER EVENTS, WEATHERING, WETLANDS, WHEAT, WORLD FOOD SUPPLY, YIELDS