US maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress

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dc.creatorThomas, Timothy S.
dc.date2015-12-03
dc.date2024-08-01T02:52:12Z
dc.date2024-08-01T02:52:12Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T14:57:57Z
dc.descriptionHeat is a serious barrier to maize productivity increases, and heat is expected to rise as a result of climate change. Using county-level annual yields for rainfed maize for 2,616 US counties from 1980 to 2010, we conduct a multivariate, nonparametric yield response analysis to weather, maize price, and time trend to project climate impact on maize and to compare with climate projections from crop models. When we compare with climate impacts predicted by biophysical models, we find that our analysis tends to support the most pessimistic of the biophysical model projections for climate change. We also demonstrate that growth in maize yields in the United States between 1980 and 2010 was higher under high temperatures than under moderate temperatures, with yields growing 20.2 percent faster when the mean daily maximum temperature for the warmest month ranged from 34 to 35 degrees Celsius instead of 28 to 29 degrees. Similarly, we find that US maize has become more tolerant of lower rainfall levels, with yields growing 15.9 percent faster between 1980 and 2010 when rainfall is below 250 millimeters in the first four months of the growing period compared with when it is between 400 and 450 millimeters (the optimal amount of rainfall). This suggests that significant adaptation to current and future effects of climate change is already taking place for US maize.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/150527
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/90706
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/9780896291867
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12088
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/9780896298477
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceThomas, Timothy S. US maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress. 2015. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1485. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/150527
dc.subjectmodels
dc.subjectmaize
dc.subjectheat stress
dc.subjectproductivity
dc.subjectclimate change adaptation
dc.subjectwater stress
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.titleUS maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress
dc.typeWorking Paper

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)