The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Poverty and Income Distribution in Mongolia
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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The financial crisis of 2008-09 has
considerably slowed the pace of economic growth in Mongolia.
When combined with the Dzud (severe winter storm) of
2009-10, which occurred just as the economy was beginning to
recover and killed over one million heads of livestock, the
slowdown is likely to have significant impacts on poverty as
well as the distribution of income and consumption among the
poor and non-poor. In this paper we examine the poverty and
distributional impacts of the crisis in Mongolia, relying on
predictions from a simulation model based on pre-crisis
data, given that household data to measure impacts during
and after the crisis is unavailable. It is difficult to
predict the distributional impacts of the financial crisis
with a high degree of confidence. Evidence from previous
crises suggests that relative inequality falls about as
often as it rises during aggregate contractions (Paci et al,
2008). Furthermore, as the crisis spreads within a country
(through adjustments in domestic credit and labor markets
and fiscal policies), its impacts across different groups,
sectors or areas became all the more difficult to track. The
paper is structured as follows. Section two outlines the
basic methodological approach used to create the simulation
results used here. Section three discusses the macroeconomic
projections that are used as inputs into the model. Sections
four and five examine the model's projections for
poverty and distributional impacts respectively, section six
discusses the impact of Dzud (severe winter) and section
seven concludes.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, ADVERSE IMPACT, AGGREGATE EMPLOYMENT, AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, ANNUAL GROWTH, AVERAGE INCOME, BASE YEAR, BENCHMARK, BUSINESS CYCLE, CASH TRANSFERS, CHRONICALLY POOR, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION LEVELS, COUNTERFACTUAL, CRISES, DATA SET, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING WORLD, DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS, DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGES, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT, DISTRIBUTIONAL MEASURES, DRIVERS, ECONOMETRICS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC POLICY, ELASTICITY, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE, EMPLOYMENT INCOME, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, EMPLOYMENT STATUS, EXPORTS, EXTREME POVERTY, FARMERS, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FISCAL POLICIES, FOOD BASKET, FOOD BUNDLE, FOOD PRICES, GDP, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GROWTH PROJECTIONS, GROWTH RATE, HIGH GROWTH, HIGH INFLATION, HISTORICAL DATA, HOUSEHOLD DATA, HOUSEHOLD HEADS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, IMPACT ON POVERTY, INCOME, INCOME DATA, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME GAINS, INCOME GROUPS, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME LEVEL, INEQUALITY, INFLATION RATE, INTERVENTION, LABOR DEMAND, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, LABOR SUPPLY, LOW INCOME, MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS, MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES, MEASUREMENT ERROR, MIDDLE CLASS, NEGATIVE GROWTH, NEGATIVE IMPACT, NEW POOR, OUTPUTS, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLICY OPTIONS, POLICY REFORMS, POOR, POOR HOUSEHOLD, POPULATION GROWTH, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY GAP, POVERTY HEADCOUNT, POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATES, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE CHANGES, PROBABILITY, PRODUCTIVE ASSETS, PRODUCTIVITY, PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT, PUBLIC SECTOR, RAPID INCREASE, REAL GDP, REAL WAGES, REASSIGNMENT, REDUCING POVERTY, RELATIVE IMPORTANCE, RELATIVE PRICES, RENTS, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL HOUSEHOLD, RURAL HOUSEHOLDS, RURAL INCOME, RURAL POOR, SAFETY, SAFETY NET, SAFETY NET PROGRAMS, SAVINGS, SECTOR EMPLOYMENT, SIGNIFICANT IMPACT, SKILL LEVEL, SKILL WORKERS, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, TARGETING, UNEMPLOYED, WEALTH