Food inflation, poverty, and urbanization

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dc.creatorHeadey, Derek D.
dc.creatorHirvonen, Kalle
dc.date2022-08-30
dc.date2024-04-12T13:36:43Z
dc.date2024-04-12T13:36:43Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:04:15Z
dc.descriptionAfter a long secular decline in the 20th century, food prices spiked sharply in 2007-08, 2010-11 and again in 2021-22. While often termed “food crises”, economists disagree on whether rising food prices increase or decrease poverty: poor people have high food expenditure shares but also produce and sell food, and higher food prices trigger food supply responses and growth in rural wages. One limitation of previous econometric studies is their focus on medium-run multi-year impacts, even though simulation analyses typically find negative impacts in the short run. In this study we therefore construct and analyze a novel short run panel of annual poverty and food price data for 33 middle income countries (MICs) over 2000-2019. Using standard panel data techniques, we find that increases in the real price of food predict reductions in $3.20/day poverty in less urbanized countries but increases in poverty in the most urbanized MICs.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/140833
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/93645
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceHeadey, Derek D.; and Hirvonen, Kalle. 2022. Food inflation, poverty, and urbanization in the short run. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2133. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136356.
dc.subjectcrises
dc.subjectinflation
dc.subjecturbanization
dc.subjectdeveloping countries
dc.subjectfood security
dc.subjectfood inflation
dc.subjectfood prices
dc.subjectpoverty
dc.titleFood inflation, poverty, and urbanization
dc.typeWorking Paper

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)