Trading Away from Conflict : Using Trade to Increase Resilience in Fragile States

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dc.creatorCali, Massimiliano
dc.date2014-12-15T21:12:19Z
dc.date2014-12-15T21:12:19Z
dc.date2015
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:52:28Z
dc.descriptionWhile economic growth in developing countries over the last ten years has lifted more people out of poverty than in any previous time, more than one billion people still live in countries affected by violent conflict. Conflict weakens governance, undermines economic development and threatens both national and regional stability. Trade shocks, in particular, can have widely varying impacts on conflict. This report sets out to empirically test these linkages between trade shocks and conflict via cross-country and intra-country analysis. On the basis of the analysis, it offers trade-related policy directions to reduce this risk in fragile economies. The results provide convincing evidence that trade and trade policy have a large impact on the risk and intensity of conflict. This report is composed of three main chapters. Chapter 1 develops a conceptual framework mapping the different channels through which trade may affect conflict and political stability. The framework is based on simple economic theory and the available empirical evidence on the impact of trade related changes on conflict and stability. It then tests this framework empirically through the analysis of cross-country data and through case studies of Nigeria and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The hope is that these types of intra-country analyses could be replicated in other countries, since they use data that are available in different countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Chapter 2 uses the same conceptual framework to show how differences in underlying conditions affect the relationship between trade-related changes and conflict. Following a review of the literature on the drivers of conflict, it examines the importance of four groups of grievances: conditions in neighboring countries, factors increasing grievance, government institutions, and policies that affect the transmission of changes in international prices to the domestic market. These relationships are tested using cross-country data and case studies of Nigeria and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Finally, chapter 3 uses the existing evidence, as well as evidence generated in this report, to discuss how the policies governing trade can reduce the probability and intensity of conflicts. Two appendixes include detailed information on the modeling framework, the data issues and the estimation results.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/12/23010200/trading-away-conflict-using-trade-increase-resilience-fragile-states
dc.identifier978-1-4648-0308-6
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/20713
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0308-6
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/412286
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.relationDirections in Development--Trade;
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectACCESS TO FOREIGN MARKETS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRICES
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectARMED CONFLICT
dc.subjectBALANCE OF POWER
dc.subjectBANK ACCOUNT
dc.subjectBARRIERS TO TRADE
dc.subjectBATTLE
dc.subjectBILATERAL TRADE
dc.subjectBOUNDARIES
dc.subjectCHANGES IN TRADE
dc.subjectCIVIL WAR
dc.subjectCOFFEE PRICES
dc.subjectCOMMERCE
dc.subjectCOMMERCIAL POLICY
dc.subjectCOMMODITIES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY EXPORT
dc.subjectCOMMODITY EXPORTS
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICE
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectCONCESSIONS
dc.subjectCONFLICT
dc.subjectCONFLICTS
dc.subjectCONNECTIVITY
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectCOTTON PRICES
dc.subjectCOUNTRY DUMMY
dc.subjectCRISES
dc.subjectDEATHS
dc.subjectDEMAND SHOCKS
dc.subjectDEPENDENCE
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDIVIDEND
dc.subjectDIVIDEND PAYMENTS
dc.subjectDOLLAR VALUE
dc.subjectDOMESTIC MARKET
dc.subjectDOMESTIC MARKETS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICE
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICES
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRODUCERS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRODUCTION
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
dc.subjectECONOMIC DOWNTURNS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY
dc.subjectECONOMIC INEQUALITIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC INEQUALITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectECONOMIC RELATIONS
dc.subjectECONOMIC RESOURCES
dc.subjectECONOMIC THEORY
dc.subjectECONOMICS LITERATURE
dc.subjectEMBASSY
dc.subjectEXOGENOUS SHOCKS
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPLOITATION
dc.subjectEXPORT DIVERSIFICATION
dc.subjectEXPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectEXPORT MARKETS
dc.subjectEXPORT PRICE
dc.subjectEXPORT PRICES
dc.subjectEXPORT SECTOR
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL TRADE
dc.subjectFIGHTING
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTORS
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subjectFOREIGN INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN MARKET
dc.subjectFOREIGN MARKETS
dc.subjectFOREIGN POLICY
dc.subjectFOREIGN SUPPLIERS
dc.subjectFUTURE RESEARCH
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
dc.subjectGROUPS OF COMMODITIES
dc.subjectIMPACT OF TRADE
dc.subjectIMPORT PRICES
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME GROUP
dc.subjectINCOME LEVELS
dc.subjectINCOMES
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL MARKETS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL PRICES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL STUDIES
dc.subjectLIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectLOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMICS
dc.subjectMARGINAL EFFECTS
dc.subjectMARKET ACCESS
dc.subjectMEETING
dc.subjectMERCHANDISE
dc.subjectMERCHANDISE EXPORTS
dc.subjectNATIONAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectNET EXPORTERS
dc.subjectOIL PRICE
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectOIL REVENUES
dc.subjectOPPORTUNITY COST
dc.subjectPEACE
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectPOLITICAL STABILITY
dc.subjectPOLITICAL UNREST
dc.subjectPOLITICAL VIOLENCE
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL ACCESS
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRICE FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectPRICE INDEX
dc.subjectPRICE INDICES
dc.subjectPRICE LEVEL
dc.subjectPRICE SUBSIDIES
dc.subjectPRICE VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPUBLIC FUNDS
dc.subjectREAL INCOME
dc.subjectREBEL
dc.subjectREBELS
dc.subjectRECONSTRUCTION
dc.subjectREFUGEES
dc.subjectREGIONAL CONFLICTS
dc.subjectREGIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectREGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectRULE OF LAW
dc.subjectSALES
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE GROWTH
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTAXATION
dc.subjectTECHNICAL ASSISTANCE
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENT
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectTRADE COMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectTRADE FACILITATION
dc.subjectTRADE FLOWS
dc.subjectTRADE INTEGRATION
dc.subjectTRADE LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectTRADE POLICIES
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectTRADE PROTECTION
dc.subjectTRADE RELATIONS
dc.subjectTRADE SHOCKS
dc.subjectTRADE VARIABLES
dc.subjectTRANSPARENCY
dc.subjectTRANSPARENCY INITIATIVE
dc.subjectTRANSPARENCY INITIATIVES
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT RATES
dc.subjectVALUE OF EXPORTS
dc.subjectVIOLENCE
dc.subjectVOLATILITY
dc.subjectVOLUME OF TRADE
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectWARS
dc.subjectWEALTH
dc.subjectWORLD DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
dc.titleTrading Away from Conflict : Using Trade to Increase Resilience in Fragile States

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