Optimal Land Allocation and Production Timing for Fresh Vegetable Growers under Price and Production Uncertainty
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Production timing is an essential element in fresh vegetable growers’ efforts to maximize
profitability and reduce income risks. The present study uses biophysical simulation modeling
coupled with a dual crop (tomatoes, sweet corn) whole-farm economic formulation to
analyze the effects of growers’ risk aversion levels and price consideration (seasonal or
annual price consideration) in expected net returns and production practices. The findings
indicate that consideration of seasonal price trends results in higher expected net returns and
greater opportunities to mitigate risk. Furthermore, risk aversion levels substantially influence
production timing when seasonal price trends are considered.