Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020

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dc.creatorLofgren, Hans
dc.creatorRobinson, Sherman
dc.creatorNygaard, David F.
dc.date1998
dc.date2025-01-29T12:58:26Z
dc.date2025-01-29T12:58:26Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:40:12Z
dc.descriptionA dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to explore alternative scenarios for 1990-2020 in areas critical for Egypt's economy -- productivity growth, investment, foreign trade, and water. The model is formulated as a mixed-complementarity problem, has a detailed treatment of agriculture, assumes competitive markets and determines efficient water allocation. A "Turtle" scenario extrapolates Egypt's recent poor productivity and low investment, while a "Tiger" scenario assumes East Asian performance. For the Turtle scenario, incomes are stagnant and a crisis emerges in the labor market. With rapid growth in export demand, investment and productivity, the "Tiger" scenario generates almost tripled per-capita incomes and full employment. Sensitivity analysis for the Tiger scenario suggests that growth in export demand is important, while tariff removal with no other policy changes has little effect. Increasing water scarcity hurts agriculture and labor absorption, but has little effect on overall growth.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/171603
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/111193
dc.languageen
dc.publisherThe American University in Cairo Press
dc.publisherInternational Development Research Centre
dc.rightsLimited Access
dc.sourceLofgren, Hans; Robinson, Sherman; Nygaard, David F. 1998. Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020. In Raed Safadi, ed. Opening doors to the world: a new trade agenda for the Middle East. pp. 167-197 (Chapter 5).
dc.subjectequilibrium
dc.subjectagriculture
dc.subjecteconomic aspects
dc.subjectwater supply
dc.subjectcomputable general equilibrium models
dc.subjecttrade
dc.subjecttrade liberalization
dc.subjectinternational trade
dc.titleTiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020
dc.typeBook Chapter

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)