A remote-sensing assessment for monitoring agricultural land in Mykolaiv Oblast, Ukraine

Mohammed, I.; Senel, G.; Ostapenko, S.; Lucas, T.A.; Amaya Ortiz, L.; Ostapenko, P.; Bonchkovskyi, O.; Shvaiko, V.; Henry, M.;

A remote-sensing assessment for monitoring agricultural land in Mykolaiv Oblast, Ukraine

Autores

Mohammed, I.; Senel, G.; Ostapenko, S.; Lucas, T.A.; Amaya Ortiz, L.; Ostapenko, P.; Bonchkovskyi, O.; Shvaiko, V.; Henry, M.;

Editor

FAO ;

Descripción

Situated in southern Ukraine, Mykolaiv Oblast is a major agricultural region with diverse crop production. This assessment quantifies changes in cropland extent, crop composition, yields and production across four agricultural seasons (2021 baseline to 2024) using publicly available satellite imagery, crop calendars and field boundary–based analysis.In 2021, approximately 1.82 million hectares of cropland were cultivated, representing around three-quarters of the oblast’s territory. The largest contraction occurred in 2022, when cultivated land declined by 18 percent. Although a partial recovery followed in 2023, cropland area remained below the 2021 baseline and declined again in 2024. By the end of the study period, cultivated land was about 17 percent below pre-disruption levels.Yield and production estimation linked observed area changes to supply outcomes. Results indicate that reductions in cultivated area were compounded by lower yields for wheat and barley, sunflower and maize, producing broad declines in output across raions. The study demonstrates a reproducible satellite-based framework for monitoring agricultural change in conflict-affected settings and provides spatially explicit evidence to inform recovery planning and targeted agricultural support.