Climatic stresses and rural emigration in Guatemala

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dc.creatorBritos, Braulio
dc.creatorHernandez, Manuel A.
dc.creatorPuricelli, Estefania
dc.creatorSahajpal, Ritvik
dc.date2023-10-11
dc.date2024-03-14T12:09:05Z
dc.date2024-03-14T12:09:05Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:32:35Z
dc.descriptionInternational migration is a recurrent and growing phenomenon and a large share of emigrants originate from rural areas. This study examines the association between climatic stresses and rural emigration in Guatemala. We exploit variations on climatic stress situations and emigration flows at the subnational level and over time to examine whether the observed migration dynamics can be explained by the occurrence of specific adverse weather events. We find that drought periods affect emigration positively the following year, especially among men, while periods of high temperatures and low soil moisture affect male and female emigration negatively. The results are generally not much sensitive to alternative model specifications and estimations. The apparent mixed findings point to both direct effects where climatic stresses may encourage people to migrate in search of better opportunities, as well as indirect effects in the sense that climatic stresses affect agricultural productivity and household liquidity, which may prevent people from migrating despite their willingness to emigrate.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/140211
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/107352
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.publisherNASA Harvest
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294417_07
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/153852
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2103
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133849
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceBritos, Braulio; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Puricelli, Estefania; and Sahajpal, Ritvik. 2023. Climatic stresses and rural emigration in Guatemala. Project Note. Washington, DC; College Park MD: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); NASA Harvest. https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136920.
dc.subjectweather hazards
dc.subjectrural population
dc.subjectgender
dc.subjectagricultural production
dc.subjecthouseholds
dc.subjectmigration
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.titleClimatic stresses and rural emigration in Guatemala
dc.typeBrief

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)