Predicting Pork Supplies: An Application of Multiple Forecast Encompassing
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Autores
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
Resumen
Descripción
Conditional efficiency or forecast encompassing is tested among alternative pork production forecasts using the method proposed by Harvey and Newbold. One-, two-, and three-quarter ahead pork production forecasts made by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the University of Illinois and Purdue University Cooperative Extension Service, and those produced by a univariate time series model are evaluated. The encompassing tests provide considerably more information about forecast performance than a simple pair-wise test for equality of mean squared errors. The results suggest that at a one-quarter horizon, the Extension service forecasts encompass the competitors, but at longer horizon, a composite forecast may provide greater accuracy.