Modeling the Effects of Pasture Expansion on Emissions from Land-Use Change
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We present a global agricultural greenhouse gas model that assesses emissions from land-use
change. In addition to evaluating shifts in and out of crop production, we develop a pasture model
to assess extensification and intensification of global livestock production based on herd size
and stocking rate. We apply the model to a scenario that introduces a tax on methane emissions
from cattle in the United States. The resulting expansion of pasture in the rest of the world leads
to substantially higher emissions than without the tax. The yearly average emissions from the tax
are 260 metric tons of CO2-equivalent.