Belarus Country Economic Memorandum : Eeconomic Transformation for Growth
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Washington, DC
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The last decade in Belarus was marked by
an average economic growth rate of close to 8 percent
annually and an impressive eight-fold reduction in poverty.
Economic growth was initially driven by external factors,
but after 2005 expansionary domestic demand became the
prevalent contributor to growth. Growth was backed by large
state support to the economy, sizeable public investments,
and huge expansion of credit, particularly under government
directed lending programs. Simultaneously, the external
balance shifted from a surplus of 1.4 percent of growth
development product (GDP) in 2005 to a deficit of 15.0
percent of GDP in 2010. Throughout the period 2001-10, the
economic model relied on underpriced energy resources from
Russia, with an annual average size of the imputed subsidy
of over 13 percent of GDP. However, the existing growth
model has reached its limits and cannot ensure growth
sustainability without structural reforms. Going forward,
the growth model will have to rely on significant
productivity gains driven by structural reforms in an
environment of macroeconomic stability. Macroeconomic
adjustment which effectively combats the sources of external
imbalances in Belarus is a critical and necessary, but
insufficient condition for achieving sustainable economic
growth in the medium term. The Belarusian economy is facing
formidable challenges beyond the macroeconomic issue of
adequately financing its external imbalances: (1) how to
reallocate labor and capital to high productivity segments
of the economy; (2) how to restructure the state-owned
enterprise sector; and (3) how to support the underdeveloped
private sector and the services sector. By successfully
overcoming these challenges, Belarus will revive its
competitive segments of the economy and discover untapped
opportunities for growth. It will also diminish its economic
dependence on underpriced energy from Russia and move up the
value chain in global integration. With valuable
geographical location and an educated and disciplined labor
force, Belarus can restructure its economy, diversify its
exports, and increase the prosperity of its people.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTABILITY, ACCOUNTING, ACCUMULATED DEPRECIATION, ADMINISTRATIVE CONTROLS, AGRICULTURE, ALLOCATION OF CAPITAL, ALLOCATION OF CREDIT, ASSET QUALITY, ASSETS, AUTONOMY, AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANK ASSET, BANK EQUITY, BANK LENDING, BANK RECAPITALIZATION, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SYSTEM, BARRIERS TO ENTRY, BASKET OF GOODS, BENCHMARK, BOND, BORROWING, BUDGET CONSTRAINTS, BUDGET SURPLUS, CAPITAL ALLOCATION, CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, CAPITAL GOODS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL MARKETS, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES, COMPETITION POLICY, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMERS, CONVERGENCE EQUATIONS, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, CPI, CRISES, CURRENCY, DEBT, DEBT SERVICE, DEBT STOCK, DEFICITS, DEPOSIT, DEVALUATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT BANK, DIVIDENDS, DOMESTIC CREDIT, EARLY RETIREMENT, ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CRISES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC RENTS, ECONOMIC SECTORS, ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, ELASTICITY, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE, EXCHANGE RATE, EXPENDITURE, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL BORROWINGS, EXTERNAL DEBT, FACTOR MARKETS, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SYSTEM, FISCAL POLICIES, FIXED ASSETS, FIXED CAPITAL, FOREIGN BANKS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS, FORESTRY, FULL EMPLOYMENT, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, GOVERNMENT LABOR POLICIES, GOVERNMENT OWNERSHIP, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GOVERNMENT SUPPORT, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, GROWTH POTENTIAL, GROWTH RATE, HIGH WAGES, HOUSING, INCOME, INCOME LEVELS, INEFFICIENCY, INFLATION, INNOVATION, INNOVATIONS, INSURANCE, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISIS, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTION, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, INVENTORY, INVESTMENT FINANCING, INVESTOR PROTECTION, JOB CREATION, JOINT STOCK COMPANY, LABOR COSTS, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKET POLICIES, LABOR MARKET RIGIDITIES, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR MOBILITY, LABOR ORGANIZATION, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, LABOR STATISTICS, LENDING PORTFOLIO, LIABILITY, LIQUIDITY, LOCAL GOVERNMENT, MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT, MACROECONOMIC CRISES, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET COMPETITION, MARKET CONCENTRATION, MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE, MARKET SHARE, MICROFINANCE, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICIES, MONETARY POLICY, NATIONAL BANK, NOMINAL INTEREST RATE, NONPERFORMING LOAN, NONPERFORMING LOANS, NPL, OIL, OIL PRICES, OUTPUT PER CAPITA, OUTPUTS, OUTSTANDING LOANS, OVEREMPLOYMENT, PEER REVIEW, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLICY INSTRUMENTS, POTENTIAL INVESTORS, POTENTIAL OUTPUT, PRIVATIZATION, PRODUCTION FUNCTION, PRODUCTION INPUTS, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PROFITABILITY, PROPERTY RIGHTS, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, RATES OF RETURN, REAL GDP, REAL INTEREST, REAL INTEREST RATE, REAL INTEREST RATES, REAL WAGES, REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS, RESOURCE ALLOCATION, RETIREMENT, RETURN ON ASSETS, RETURNS, RISK MANAGEMENT, SAFETY, SAFETY NETS, SAVINGS, SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS, SOVEREIGN RISK, STATE BANKS, STATE ENTERPRISES, STATE PROPERTY, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, TAX, TAX RATE, TAX REVENUES, TAXATION, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TERMS OF TRADE, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TOTAL OUTPUT, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE NEGOTIATIONS, TRADING, TRANSITION ECONOMIES, TRANSPORT, TRUST FUND, UNEMPLOYED, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, VALUE ADDED, WAGE POLICIES, WAGE SUBSIDIES, WAGES, WEALTH, WORKING HOURS, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, WTO