Food Outlook - June 2009
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In spite of strong gains in recent weeks, international prices of most agricultural commodities have fallen in 2009 from their 2008 heights, an indication that many markets are slowly returning into balance, in sharp contrast to what was witnessed this time last year. The apparent easing of market conditions is reflected in the benchmark FAO Food Price Index, which has fallen by one-third from last June’s peak. So far, the improvement has largely concerned cereals, the critical sector for food security, after production in 2008 overshot prior expectations, yielding even larger crops than originally forecast. The increased global production was sufficient to meet demand for food and other uses but also facilitated a replenishment of global reserves to pre-crisis levels. With the new 2009/10 marketing seasons commencing, prospects continue to be positive, as world cereal production is expected to be the second largest ever, after last year’s record.