Preferential Liberalization and Its Economy-Wide Effects in Honduras
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Autores
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
World Bank, Washington, DC
Resumen
Descripción
This paper quantifies the likely
benefits of trade and investment liberalization in a small,
poor, open economy, using the accession of Honduras to the
Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement as
a case study. The results show that bilateral trade
liberalization with the United States is likely to have
almost no effect on welfare in Honduras, while the
reciprocal removal of protection vis-a-vis the rest of
Central America would lead to significantly larger gains.
Potential gains from increased net foreign direct investment
inflows overwhelm those expected from trade reform alone,
particularly if the new foreign direct investment generates
productivity spillovers. However, if it is to replace
Honduran investment rather than complement domestic capital
formation, growth performance is unlikely to improve and may
even suffer. The paper's results identify several areas
for policy attention by Honduran policy makers to make the
Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement
more development-friendly. These include carefully
considering the budgetary implications of trade reform,
widening social safety nets to counter the trends toward
increasing income inequality, and sequencing the reforms to
ensure a close alignment of Honduras' comparative
advantage on the regional and global markets.
Palabras clave
ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES, ADVERSE EFFECTS, AGGREGATE INVESTMENT, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL GROWTH, APPAREL, AVERAGE TARIFF, AVERAGE TARIFFS, BALANCE OF PAYMENT, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CONSTRAINT, BASE YEAR, BENCHMARK, BILATERAL AGREEMENT, BILATERAL TRADE, CAPACITY BUILDING, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL FORMATION, CAPITAL INCOME, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL STOCK, CAPITAL STOCKS, CENTRAL BANK, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMON MARKET, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, CONCESSIONS, CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION, CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF TRANSFORMATION, CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE, CONSUMER PREFERENCES, CONSUMER SURPLUS, CONSUMERS, CONSUMPTION BASKET, CONSUMPTION LEVELS, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, DEBT, DEBT SERVICE, DEMAND CURVE, DEMAND GROWTH, DEMAND SHOCKS, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DISPOSABLE INCOME, DISPOSABLE INCOMES, DISPUTE SETTLEMENT, DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC GOODS, DOMESTIC PRICE, DOMESTIC PRICES, DOMESTIC PRODUCERS, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, ELASTICITY, ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION, EQUILIBRIA, EXPANSION OF EXPORTS, EXPENDITURE FUNCTION, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT MARKETS, EXPORT ORIENTATION, EXPORT PRICES, EXPORT SHARES, EXPORT SUPPLY, EXPORT VOLUME, EXPORT VOLUMES, EXPORTER, EXPORTERS, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL PROTECTION, FACTOR MARKETS, FISCAL DEFICIT, FOOD PRICES, FORECASTS, FOREIGN CAPITAL, FOREIGN DEBT, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FREE ACCESS, FREE TRADE, FREE TRADE AGREEMENT, FULL LIBERALIZATION, FULL TRADE LIBERALIZATION, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, GENERALIZED SYSTEM OF PREFERENCES, GLOBAL DEMAND, GLOBAL MARKET, GLOBAL MARKETS, GNP, GOVERNMENT BONDS, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH PROJECTIONS, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, IMBALANCES, IMPERFECT COMPETITION, IMPORT, IMPORT COMPETITION, IMPORT CONTENT, IMPORT DEMAND, IMPORT PRICES, IMPORT QUOTAS, IMPORT TARIFFS, IMPORTS, INCOME, INCOME ELASTICITIES, INCOME ELASTICITY, INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND, INCOME GROWTH, INCREASING RETURNS, INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE, INTERMEDIATE GOODS, INTERMEDIATE INPUTS, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVENTORIES, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT DEMAND, INVESTMENT GOODS, INVESTMENT INFLOWS, INVESTMENT LIBERALIZATION, INVESTMENT SPENDING, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKET SEGMENTATION, LABOR MARKETS, LIBERALIZATION OF TRADE, LOST TARIFF REVENUE, LOW TARIFF, MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS, MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES, MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO SAVE, MARKET ACCESS, MARKET SHARE, MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION, MULTILATERAL LIBERALIZATION, MULTILATERAL TRADE, NATURAL RESOURCES, NEOCLASSICAL MODELS, OPEN ECONOMY, OPTIMIZATION, PREFERENTIAL TRADE, PRICE FLUCTUATIONS, PRICE INDEX, PRIVATE CAPITAL, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PROTECTION DATA, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC SPENDING, RATE OF GROWTH, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS, RELATIVE PRICE, RELATIVE PRICES, REMITTANCE, REMITTANCES, SAFETY NETS, SHORTFALL, SUPPLY SIDE, TARIFF BARRIERS, TARIFF DATA, TARIFF RATE, TARIFF RATES, TARIFF REDUCTION, TARIFF REDUCTIONS, TARIFF REVENUES, TARIFFS ON IMPORTS, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TEXTILE TARIFF, TOTAL DEBT, TOTAL EXPORTS, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TOTAL IMPORTS, TOTAL INVESTMENT, TOTAL OUTPUT, TRADE BARRIERS, TRADE DIVERSION, TRADE FACILITATION, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE POLICY, TRADE REFORM, TRADING PARTNER, TRADING PARTNERS, TRANSITION MATRIX, UNCERTAINTIES, UNCERTAINTY, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNILATERAL LIBERALIZATION, UNSKILLED LABOR, UNSKILLED WORKERS, URUGUAY ROUND, UTILITY FUNCTION, UTILITY FUNCTIONS, VALUE ADDED, WAGE DIFFERENTIALS, WAGES, WEIGHTS, WELFARE GAINS, WORLD MARKET, WORLD PRICE, WORLD PRICES, WTO, ZERO TARIFF