Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with free-air CO2 enrichment and growth chamber experiments

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dc.creatorHasegawa, Toshihiro
dc.creatorLi, Tao
dc.creatorYin, Xinyou
dc.creatorZhu, Yan
dc.creatorBoote, Kenneth
dc.creatorBaker, Jeffrey
dc.creatorBregaglio, Simone
dc.creatorBuis, Samuel
dc.creatorConfalonieri, Roberto
dc.creatorFugice, Job
dc.creatorFumoto, Tamon
dc.creatorGaydon, Donald
dc.creatorKumar, Soora Naresh
dc.creatorLafarge, Tanguy
dc.creatorMarcaida III, Manuel
dc.creatorMasutomi, Yuji
dc.creatorNakagawa, Hiroshi
dc.creatorOriol, Philippe
dc.creatorRuget, Françoise
dc.creatorSingh, Upendra
dc.creatorTang, Liang
dc.creatorTao, Fulu
dc.creatorWakatsuki, Hitomi
dc.creatorWallach, Daniel
dc.creatorWang, Yulong
dc.creatorWilson, Lloyd Ted
dc.creatorYang, Lianxin
dc.creatorYang, Yubin
dc.creatorYoshida, Hiroe
dc.creatorZhang, Zhao
dc.creatorZhu, Jianguo
dc.date2017-11-01
dc.date2024-12-19T12:54:31Z
dc.date2024-12-19T12:54:31Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T04:13:02Z
dc.descriptionThe CO2 fertilization effect is a major source of uncertainty in crop models for future yield forecasts, but coordinated efforts to determine the mechanisms of this uncertainty have been lacking. Here, we studied causes of uncertainty among 16 crop models in predicting rice yield in response to elevated [CO2] (E-[CO2]) by comparison to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) and chamber experiments. The model ensemble reproduced the experimental results well. However, yield prediction in response to E-[CO2] varied significantly among the rice models. The variation was not random: models that overestimated at one experiment simulated greater yield enhancements at the others. The variation was not associated with model structure or magnitude of photosynthetic response to E-[CO2] but was significantly associated with the predictions of leaf area. This suggests that modelled secondary effects of E-[CO2] on morphological development, primarily leaf area, are the sources of model uncertainty. Rice morphological development is conservative to carbon acquisition. Uncertainty will be reduced by incorporating this conservative nature of the morphological response to E-[CO2] into the models. Nitrogen levels, particularly under limited situations, make the prediction more uncertain. Improving models to account for [CO2] × N interactions is necessary to better evaluate management practices under climate change.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/164964
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/25427
dc.languageen
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceHasegawa, Toshihiro; Li, Tao; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Baker, Jeffrey; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fugice, Job; Fumoto, Tamon; Gaydon, Donald; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Lafarge, Tanguy; Marcaida III, Manuel; Masutomi, Yuji; Nakagawa, Hiroshi; Oriol, Philippe; Ruget, Françoise; Singh, Upendra; Tang, Liang; Tao, Fulu; Wakatsuki, Hitomi; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Yulong; Wilson, Lloyd Ted; Yang, Lianxin; Yang, Yubin; Yoshida, Hiroe; Zhang, Zhao and Zhu, Jianguo. 2017. Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with free-air CO2 enrichment and growth chamber experiments. Sci Rep, Volume 7, no. 1
dc.titleCauses of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with free-air CO2 enrichment and growth chamber experiments
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación del Arroz (IRRI)