Incorporating Climate Change Impacts in Forest Market Models
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Climate change induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as fossil fuel
combustion, conversion of forest land, agriculture, and industry has emerged as one of the most
compelling issues of our time. Forests can play a central role in emissions abatement efforts
through afforestation, improved forest management, and utilization of biomass for energy
production. Identifying effective mitigation opportunities is difficult in that it involves a
complex interaction between shifts in forest investment, harvest rates, and utilization as well as
the associated market responses via prices and trade levels. Forest sector models are being
increasingly utilized to identify efficient policy signals that reduce GHG emissions levels to
meet both domestic and international climate change goals. Their ability to simulate climate
change policies vary as they differ in geographic scope, intertemporal dynamics, product
incorporation, and forest growth representation. First, we summarize an array of studies linking
commonly applied forest sector models with vegetation models projections of climate change
impacts. We then discuss issues that may influence a model’s ability to simulate a policy or
impact of a changing climate on forests. We conclude with suggestions for future modeling
research challenges and opportunities.