Modelo de Análise da Oferta de Exportação de Milho Brasileira: 2001 a 2012
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This study aims to estimate the corn export supply function for Brazil from
2001 to 2012. For this analysis we developed a theoretical model estimated using the
cointegration and vector error correction model (VEC). The variables used were: corn
exports, international corn price, poultry slaughters, soybean prices and world GDP. The
results obtained showed the existence of long-term relationship between the variables.
The international corn price, poultry slaughters, soybean prices and world GDP had a
significant impact on corn exports, showing signs as expected by the theoretical model. There was a positive impact on corn exports after an unanticipated shock in the soybean price and negative impact
after a not anticipated shock the slaughter of poultry. In relation to the international price, it was found that a shock
in this variable has a negative impact on corn exports. In order to assess the relationships between the domestic
price and the international price of corn, there was the weak exogeneity test between the variables and it was found
that, despite this market still does not have the Law of One Price, changes in the international corn price affect the
domestic price.