Short-run dynamics of feed ingredient prices facing the EC: a causal analysis
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This paper attempts to (1) shed some light on the EC- US controversy concerning the effect
of the EC oilseeds market regime on EC imports of US soybean products, essentially soy
meal, and (2) provide information on another EC- US controversy: Does corn-gluten feed
behave as a substitute for (EC view) or a complement to (US view) feed grains, and do EC
corn-gluten feed imports displace EC grain production or not?
By using a constrained vectorial autoregressive model of Rotterdam prices for soy meal,
sunflower meal, rape meal, corn-gluten feed and cassava, we show that (1) the decrease in
EC imports of US soymeal are mot mainly caused by the EC milling subsidies, and (2) corngluten
feed is both a substitute for soymeal due to its protein content and a substitute for
cassava (and grains) due to its energy content: US and EC views are only partial views.