THE VALUE OF EL NINO FORECAST METHODS FOR THE U.S. WINTER WHEAT PRODUCERS, DO THEY DIFFER?
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The value of improved climate forecasts to winter wheat producers is estimated. Two El Niño/Southern Oscillation based forecasting methods are compared. In most regions, a five phase approach is more valuable than the more commonly used three phase approach. Economic value and distributional aspects have implications for producers, policy makers, and meteorologists.