Dependency and Vulnerability: Japan's Neef and Feed Grain Imports in a Turbulent World Economy
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Japan's policies and import demand structures for beef, maize, and sorghum were reviewed and
quantified using a system of 12 seemingly unrelated equations consisting of 12 endogenous and 23 exogenous
vanables. Empirical implications drawn from this model indicated that Japan's beef import quota is one of the
significant factoIS that determine Japan's total beef imports and countries of origin. Hence, by the large country
assumption, Japan could benefit from its protectionist beef import policy. The model also confirmed that price
competition existed between Australian and New Zealand beef of identical quality and that US beef substitutes for
beef from Oceania, due to quotas. The ex ante simulations showed a trade-off between beef and feed grain imports
in addition to potential cross substitution of similar commodities from different sources of supply and from such
close substitutes as maize and sorghum. The USA dominated the maize and sorghum trade because its exports of
those commodities to Japan dominated Japan's demand functions for the commodities from other sources. For feed
grain trade, the freight rates between the US Gulf ports and Japan influenced neither Thailand-Japan maize trade
nor Australia-Japan sorghum trade. Australia's exportable supply of sorghum influenced both US-Japan and
Australia-Japan trade in sorghum, which in tum influenced sorghum trade between Argentina and Japan.