The Impact of Kazakhstan Accession to the World Trade Organization : A Quantitative Assessment
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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In this paper the authors use a
computable general equilibrium model of the Kazakhstan
economy to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade
Organization (WTO), which encompasses (1) improved market
access; (2) Kazakhstan tariff reduction; (3) reduction of
barriers against entry by multinational service providers;
and (4) reform of local content and value-added tax policies
confronting multinational firms in the oil sector. They
assume that foreign direct investment in business services
is necessary for multinationals to compete well with
Kazakstan business services providers, but cross-border
service provision is also present. The model incorporates
productivity effects in both goods and services markets
endogenously, through a Dixit-Stiglitz framework. The
authors estimated the ad valorem equivalent of barriers to
foreign direct investment based on detailed questionnaires
completed by specialized research institutes in Kazakhstan.
They estimate that Kazakhstan will gain about 6.7 percent of
the value of Kazakhstan consumption in the medium run from
WTO accession and up to 17.5 percent in the long run. They
estimate that the largest gains to Kazakhstan will derive
from liberalization of barriers against multinational
service providers, but the other three elements of WTO
accession that the authors model all contribute positively
to the estimated gains. Piecemeal sensitivity analysis shows
that qualitatively the results are robust, but there are
four parameters in the model that significantly affect the
estimated magnitude of the gains from WTO accession.
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AGGREGATE EXPORTS, AGRICULTURE, AIR, AIR TRANSPORT, ANTIDUMPING, ANTIDUMPING ACTIONS, ANTIDUMPING CASES, AUTHORIZED CAPITAL, BASE YEAR, BENCHMARK, BUSINESS SERVICES, CAPITAL GOOD, CAPITAL STOCK, COMPARATOR COUNTRIES, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF TRANSFORMATION, CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE, CONSULTING SERVICES, CONTROLLED, COST FUNCTIONS, COUNTRY OF ORIGIN, DATA SOURCES, DEMAND CURVE, DOMESTIC MARKET, ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATES, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ELASTICITIES, ELASTICITY, ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION, EQUILIBRIUM, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT INTENSITY, EXPORT MARKETS, EXPORT PRICE, EXPORT PRICES, EXPORT SUBSIDIES, EXPORTERS, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL TRADE, EXTERNALITY, FOREIGN BANKS, FOREIGN COMPETITION, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTORS, FOREIGN FIRMS, FOREIGN GOODS, FOREIGN OWNERSHIP, FOREIGN SUPPLIERS, FREIGHT, GAS SECTOR, GDP, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, GLOBAL MARKETPLACE, GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES, IMPERFECT COMPETITION, INCREASING RETURNS, INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE, INJURY, INTERMEDIATE INPUTS, INVESTMENT AGREEMENTS, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT LIBERALIZATION, LAND TRANSPORT, MARGINAL COST, MARGINAL COSTS, MARGINAL PRODUCT, MARGINAL REVENUE, MARITIME TRANSPORT, MARKET ACCESS, METAL PRODUCTS, MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION, MONOPOLY, MULTINATIONAL FIRMS, OPEN ECONOMY, PASSENGER SERVICES, POSITIVE EFFECTS, PRICES, PRIMARY FACTORS, PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION, PRODUCTION FUNCTION, PRODUCTIVITY, PROFITABILITY, RAILROAD, RATE OF RETURN, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REDUCTION IN TARIFFS, REDUCTION OF BARRIERS, REGULATORY BARRIERS, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, RETURN ON CAPITAL, ROUTE, SAFETY, SAFETY STANDARDS, SUPPLY CURVES, TARIFF RATE, TARIFF RATES, TARIFF REDUCTION, TARIFF REDUCTIONS, TARIFF REVENUE, TAX, TAX RATE, TELECOMMUNICATION, TELECOMMUNICATION SECTOR, TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES, TELEPHONE SERVICES, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRADE DISTORTING SUBSIDIES, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE POLICY, TRANSPORT, TRANSPORT SERVICES, TRANSPORTATION, TRANSPORTATION SERVICES, TRUE, UNSKILLED LABOR, VEHICLES, WELFARE GAINS, WORLD TRADE, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, WTO, ZERO PROFITS