A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Latin American Farms
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This study estimates the vulnerability
of Latin American agriculture to climate change using a
Ricardian analysis of both land values and net revenues.
Examining a sample of over 2,500 farms in seven countries,
the results indicate both land value and net revenue are
sensitive to climate. Both small farms and large farms have
a hill-shaped relationship with temperature. Estimating
separate regressions for dryland and irrigated farms reveals
that dryland farms are more sensitive to temperature but
irrigated farms are more sensitive to precipitation.
Examining the effects from future climate change scenarios
reveals that severe scenarios could reduce farm earnings by
as much as 62 percent by 2100, whereas more moderate
scenarios could reduce earnings by about 15 percent. Small
and large farms are equally sensitive to global warming.
Land value and net revenue analyses produce quite similar results.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURE, BARLEY, BASIL, CACAO, CASSAVA, CENTRAL AMERICA, CEREALS, CLAY SOILS, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE IMPACTS, CLIMATE MODELS, CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, CLIMATE VARIABLES, CLIMATE VARIATION, CLIMATES, CLIMATIC CHANGE, COFFEE, CORN, COTTON, CROP, CROPLAND, CROPS, DEMAND FOR FOOD, ECONOMICS, ELASTICITY, ELECTRICITY, EQUIPMENT, FAO, FARM, FARM LAND, FARM MODEL, FARM MODELS, FARMER, FARMERS, FARMING, FARMING SYSTEMS, FARMLAND, FARMS, FERTILIZATION, FERTILIZER, FOOD PRICES, FOREST, FORESTRY, FORESTS, FRUITS, GDP, GENDER, GLOBAL WARMING, GRASSES, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GASES, HARVESTING, HARVESTING EQUIPMENT, HECTARES OF LAND, INTENSIVE FARMING, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, IPCC, IRRIGATED LAND, IRRIGATED LANDS, IRRIGATION, LAND VALUE, LAND_USE, LATIN AMERICAN, LIVESTOCK, MAIZE, MILLET, OATS, OIL PALM, PEANUTS, PESTS, POOR FARMERS, POTATOES, PRECIPITATION, PRODUCE, RAINFALL, RICE, RURAL COMMUNITIES, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, SEEDS, SINGLE CROP, SMALL FARM, SMALL FARMS, SOIL, SOIL CHARACTERISTICS, SOIL TYPES, SOILS, SOUTH AMERICA, SOUTH AMERICAN, SOYBEAN, SUGAR, SUGAR BEET, SUGARCANE, SUNFLOWER, TEA, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE CHANGE, TOBACCO, WHEAT, WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION, YIELDS