Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

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dc.creatorMukashov, Askar
dc.creatorThurlow, James
dc.creatorDorosh, Paul A.
dc.creatorJones, Eleanor
dc.date2024-12-30
dc.date2025-01-08T22:43:59Z
dc.date2025-01-08T22:43:59Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:38:15Z
dc.descriptionThis study explores Nepal’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. Our analysis is based on an empirically based estimation of the probability distribution of these shocks and a machine learning summary of several thousand simulations of their impacts using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepal. In this way, we are able to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncer-tainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Our findings indicate that, given the very high import intensity of the economy, world market price and foreign exchange (FX) flow volatility have the largest impact on household welfare (consumption, poverty and undernour-ishment). However, domestic yield volatility, especially cereal yield volatility, is the most important risk to Nepal’s GDP. However, Overall, these findings suggest that risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors, can have major benefits for Nepal’s households and the overall economy.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168723
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/110189
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168180
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168167
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168183
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168174
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceMukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James; Dorosh, Paul A.; and Jones, Eleanor. 2024. Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 5. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168723
dc.subjectrisk assessment
dc.subjectclimate
dc.subjectshock
dc.subjecteconomic shock
dc.subjectmarket prices
dc.subjectcomputable general equilibrium models
dc.subjectmachine learning
dc.subjectagriculture
dc.subjectcrop yield
dc.titleNepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks
dc.typeBrief

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)