Petroleum Subsidies in Yemen : Leveraging Reform for Development
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Petroleum subsidy reform is increasingly
seen as an opportunity for consolidating public finances and
fostering sustainable economic development. Yemen, as the
country with the lowest per capita income in the group of
countries with a high level of energy subsidies, started to
reduce subsidies in 2010 and is discussing further options
for reform. The results of this paper support a
comprehensive petroleum subsidy reform in Yemen. Economic
growth is projected to accelerate between 0.1 and 0.8
percentage points annually as a result of reform. Yet, the
design of the reform is critically important, especially for
the poor. Outcomes of alternative reform scenarios range
from an increase in poverty of 2 to 6 percentage points. A
promising strategy combines subsidy reduction with direct
transfers of 13,800 to 19,700 Yemeni rials annually to the
poorest 30 percent of households and enhanced public
investments. Investments should focus on the utilities,
transport, trade, and construction sectors to integrate
economic spaces and create the platform for a restructuring
of agricultural, industrial, and service value chains, which
should encourage private sector led and job creating growth
in the medium term.
Palabras clave
ADVERSE IMPACT, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURE, AVERAGE TRAVEL TIME, BORROWING, BUDGET CONSTRAINTS, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL STOCK, CASH TRANSFERS, CLIMATE CHANGE, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICE, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSUMER GOODS, CONSUMERS, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, CONTROLLED PRICES, CORRELATION ANALYSIS, COUNTRY TO COUNTRY, CREDIT RATINGS, CROP PRODUCTION, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DIESEL, DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS, DIVERSIFICATION, DOMESTIC PRICE, DOMESTIC PRICES, DRIVERS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION, ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES, ECONOMIC SECTORS, ELASTICITIES, ELASTICITY, EMISSION, EMISSION REDUCTIONS, ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES, ENERGY SUBSIDIES, ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS, EQUAL AMOUNTS, EQUILIBRIUM, EQUILIBRIUM THEORY, EXCHANGE RATE, EXOGENOUS VARIABLES, EXPENDITURE, EXPORTS, EXTREME POVERTY, FACTOR DEMAND, FACTORS OF PRODUCTION, FARM HOUSEHOLDS, FINANCIAL RESOURCES, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL RESOURCES, FOOD INSECURITY, FOOD POLICY, FOOD PRICES, FOOD SECURITY, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOSSIL FUEL, FREIGHT, FUEL, FUEL CONSUMPTION, FUEL COSTS, FUEL PRICE, FUEL PRICES, FUEL SUBSIDIES, FUELS, GASOLINE, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GOVERNMENT BUDGET, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HOUSEHOLD BUDGET, HOUSEHOLD BUDGETS, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HOUSEHOLDS, IMPACT ON POVERTY, INCOME EFFECT, INCOMES, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, INFRASTRUCTURES, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, INVESTMENT DECISIONS, INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, INVESTMENT OPTION, IRRIGATION, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MACROECONOMICS, MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO SAVE, MARKET PRICES, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY, MULTIPLIER EFFECTS, OUTPUT, PER CAPITA INCOME, PETROLEUM PRODUCTS, POOR, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POPULATION GROWTH, POVERTY ASSESSMENT, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY LEVELS, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY STATUS, PRICE CONTROLS, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE OF FUEL, PRICE SUBSIDIES, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH, PRODUCTION COSTS, PRODUCTION FUNCTION, PRODUCTION STRUCTURE, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PROFITABILITY, PUBLIC FINANCES, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC POLICY, PUBLIC SAVINGS, PUBLIC SPENDING, PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION, REAL INCOME, REMITTANCES, ROAD, ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE, ROAD NETWORK, ROADS, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL COUNTERPARTS, RURAL FARM, RURAL HOUSEHOLDS, SAVINGS INCREASES, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL IMPACTS, SOCIAL INEQUALITY, SOCIAL PROTECTION, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, SUBSIDIZATION, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, SUSTAINABLE POVERTY REDUCTION, TARGETING, TAX, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRANSACTION COSTS, TRANSPORT, TRANSPORT SECTOR, VALUE ADDED, VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLD, WAGE RATES, WORLD MARKET