Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India

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dc.creatorKadiyala, Dakshina Murthy
dc.creatorNedumaran, Swamikannu
dc.creatorPadmanabhan, Jyosthnaa
dc.creatorGumma, Murali K.
dc.creatorGummadi, Sridhar
dc.creatorSrigiri, Srinivas R
dc.creatorRobertson, Richard D.
dc.creatorWhitbread, Anthony M.
dc.date2021-07
dc.date2021-05-12T19:01:49Z
dc.date2021-05-12T19:01:49Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:16:07Z
dc.descriptionGroundnut is one of the significant sources of oil, food, and fodder in India. It is grown in marginal arid and semi-arid agro-ecosystems with wide yield fluctuations due to spatial variability of rainfall and soil. Climate change, which is predicted to increase the intra- and inter-annual rainfall variability will further constrain the groundnut economy in India besides the global and domestic economic, social and policy changes. Through this study we aim to examine the biophysical and social economic impacts of climate change on groundnut production and prices to provide a comprehensive analysis of how agriculture and the food system will be affected. Using projected climate data for India, we estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change on groundnut during mid-century using representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. We examined the impacts of changes in population and income besides environmental factors on groundnut productivity. This is to highlight the importance of holistic assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic factors to better understand climate change impacts. Modelled projections show that by 2050, climate change under an optimistic scenario will result in −2.3 to 43.2% change in groundnut yields across various regions in India when climate alone was factored in. But the change in groundnut yields ranged from −0.9% to 16.2% when economic (population and income) and market variables (elasticities, trade, etc.) were also considered. Similarly, under pessimistic climate change scenario, the percent change in groundnut yields would be −33.7 to 3.4 with only the climate factored in and −11.2 to 4.3 with the additional economic and market variables included. This indicates the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic factors. This study highlights the need to take into account market effects to gain a holistic understanding of how economic and environmental factors impact agricultural food systems and economies.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/113703
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/99410
dc.languageen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd970
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100441
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-019-0004-2
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.09.008
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2017.11.008
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.06.010
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2016.08.003
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceKadiyala DM, Nedumaran S, Padmanabhan J, Gumma MK, Gummadi S, Srigiri SR, Robertson R, Whitbread A. 2021. Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India. Science of the Total Environment 776:145996.
dc.subjectmodels
dc.subjectgroundnuts
dc.subjectadaptation
dc.subjectcommodities
dc.subjectmodelling
dc.subjectagriculture
dc.subjectspatial analysis
dc.subjecttrade
dc.subjectclimate change adaptation
dc.subjectfood security
dc.subjectprices
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.titleModeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India
dc.typeJournal Article

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