Potential for Application of a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Modelling Framework to Poverty Outcomes

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dc.creatorPorter, Catherine
dc.creatorWhite, Emily
dc.date2016-07-07T21:06:19Z
dc.date2016-07-07T21:06:19Z
dc.date2016-06
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:49:34Z
dc.descriptionThis paper analyzes the potential to combine catastrophe risk modelling (CAT risk modeling) with economic analysis of vulnerability to poverty using the example of drought hazard impacts on the welfare of rural households in Ethiopia. The aim is to determine the potential for applying a derived set of damage (vulnerability) functions based on realized shocks and household expenditure/consumption outcomes, onto a forward-looking view of drought risk. The paper outlines the CAT risk modeling framework and the role of the vulnerability module, which describes the response of an affected exposure to a given hazard intensity. The need to explicitly account for different household characteristics that determine vulnerability within our model is considered, analogous to how a CAT risk model would differentiate damage functions for buildings by different classes of construction. Results for a regression model are presented, estimating ex-post drought impacts on consumption for heterogeneous household types (e.g. with cattle, safety-net access, illness). Next, the validity/generalizability of the derived functions are assessed, to infer applicability of the derived relationships within a CAT risk modelling framework. In particular, the analysis focuses on external validity: whether the relationships established in the dataset can be used for forecasting outside of the sample used for analysis. The model is stress-tested using statistical methods of resampling. This involves randomly splitting the data into “training” and "testing" datasets. The tests show consistency of results across the datasets. Finally, future plans are outlined with regard to developing a fuller catastrophe risk model to combine with the consumption results.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/06/26510000/potential-application-probabilistic-catastrophe-risk-modelling-framework-poverty-outcomes-general-form-vulnerability-functions-relating-household-poverty-outcomes-hazard-intensity-ethiopia
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/24634
dc.identifier10.1596/1813-9450-7717
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/411591
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7717
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectPOVERTY THRESHOLD
dc.subjectLIVING STANDARDS
dc.subjectRISKS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SIZE
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINE
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectSTORM
dc.subjectEARLY WARNING
dc.subjectFARMER
dc.subjectWIND SPEED
dc.subjectFOOD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectSCHOOLING
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATES
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectTOTAL POVERTY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectVULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
dc.subjectNATURAL CATASTROPHES
dc.subjectDEATH
dc.subjectFOOD POLICY
dc.subjectPOOR PEOPLE
dc.subjectCHILD LABOUR
dc.subjectDISASTER
dc.subjectSOLAR RADIATION
dc.subjectMEASURES
dc.subjectPOVERTY ASSESSMENT
dc.subjectHURRICANES
dc.subjectREGION
dc.subjectINSURANCE COMPANY
dc.subjectPOVERTY ANALYSIS
dc.subjectPOVERTY INDICATOR
dc.subjectCROP YIELD
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectCROP PRODUCTION
dc.subjectTSUNAMI
dc.subjectRURAL HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD HEAD
dc.subjectINSURANCE MARKETS
dc.subjectPOVERTY GAP
dc.subjectFLOODS
dc.subjectGEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS
dc.subjectVULNERABILITY‐ ASSESSMENT
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectSHEEP
dc.subjectREGIONAL RESULTS
dc.subjectPUBLIC SAFETY
dc.subjectNATURAL HAZARD
dc.subjectNATURAL DISASTERS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD FACTORS
dc.subjectFORECASTING
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subjectTYPHOON
dc.subjectDISASTERS
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectINSURERS
dc.subjectFARMERS
dc.subjectDISASTER EVENT
dc.subjectFAMINE
dc.subjectCOVARIATE SHOCKS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD HEADS
dc.subjectCLAIMS ASSESSMENT
dc.subjectINSURANCE CONTRACTS
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectREINSURANCE
dc.subjectCROP YIELDS
dc.subjectINFANT MORTALITY
dc.subjectDROUGHTS
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectTROPICAL CYCLONE
dc.subjectEARTHQUAKE
dc.subjectRISK ASSESSMENT
dc.subjectFLOOD DAMAGE
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectDISASTER REDUCTION
dc.subjectDISASTER RISK
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectDROUGHT
dc.subjectECOLOGICAL ZONES
dc.subjectNATURAL HAZARD
dc.subjectBANK
dc.subjectEXTREME EVENTS
dc.subjectINSURANCE CONTRACTS
dc.subjectFOOD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectFLOOD DAMAGE
dc.subjectSAFETY NET
dc.subjectCLAIMS ASSESSMENT
dc.subjectDAMAGE
dc.subjectIMPACT OF SHOCKS
dc.subjectIMPACT OF DISASTERS
dc.subjectSMALLHOLDER FARMERS
dc.subjectRURAL
dc.subjectFLOOD
dc.subjectCROP LOSSES
dc.subjectPRODUCTION FUNCTION
dc.subjectDIVERSIFICATION
dc.subjectIDIOSYNCRATIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectRURAL POLICY
dc.subjectSAFETY‐NET
dc.subjectREGIONS
dc.subjectPRODUCTION SYSTEMS
dc.subjectHURRICANE
dc.subjectIRRIGATION
dc.subjectRISK
dc.subjectFOOD CROPS
dc.subjectPOVERTY
dc.subjectDROUGHT RISK
dc.subjectVULNERABILITY TO POVERTY
dc.subjectABSOLUTE TERMS
dc.subjectCLIMATE CONDITIONS
dc.subjectPHYSICAL DAMAGE
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectRISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectIMPACT EVENTS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD WELFARE
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLDS WITH LIVESTOCK
dc.subjectPOOR
dc.subjectWELFARE MONITORING
dc.subjectPOVERTY ASSESSMENT
dc.subjectDISASTER RISK
dc.subjectWELFARE MEASURE
dc.subjectASSET SALES
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectCHILD LABOUR
dc.subjectCLIMATIC REGION
dc.subjectSAFETY
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectRISK ASSESSMENT
dc.subjectPOVERTY ANALYSIS
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER
dc.titlePotential for Application of a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Modelling Framework to Poverty Outcomes
dc.titleGeneral Form Vulnerability Functions Relating Household Poverty Outcomes to Hazard Intensity in Ethiopia
dc.typeWorking Paper
dc.typeDocument de travail
dc.typeDocumento de trabajo

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