Albania - Sustaining Growth Beyond the Transition : A World Bank Country Economic Memorandum
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Washington, DC
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While Albania 's performance has
been impressive, there are concerns about the sustainability
of high rates of economic growth in the future. The evidence
from the growth accounting exercise indicates that total
factor productivity growth from post-transition reallocation
is gradually coming to an end. At the same time, the
contribution of capital accumulation has only picked up
modestly. This suggests that in order to sustain high GDP
growth going forward, Albania must seek to raise its
investment and, secondary school enrollment rates, increase
the degree of trade integration, and improve institutional
quality (governance). Worryingly, total factor productivity
growth has slowed significantly in recent years while the
contribution of factor accumulation was negligible. Neither
remittances nor earnings from illegal activities constitute
a solid basis for long-term economic development. There are
signs, already, of a decelerating trend in the level of
remittances. Furthermore, there are concerns about the
financing of the country's investment needs over the
medium term. The likelihood that Albania's access to
concessional financing sources will decline, as well as
expectations for dwindling external support and inflows from
abroad, presents major risk factors that must be mitigated
with the help of the donor community.
Palabras clave
AGED, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURE, ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY, ANNUAL REPORT, BENCHMARK, CITIES, CLIMATE, COMPETITIVENESS, CORRUPTION, DECENTRALIZATION, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC SECTORS, EDUCATION, EMIGRATION, EMPLOYMENT, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCISE TAXES, EXERCISES, EXPENDITURES, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL COSTS, FAMILIES, FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GROWTH RATE, HEALTH, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPORTS, INFLATION, INFLATION RATE, INNOVATION, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, LABOR FORCE, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION, MACROECONOMICS, MIGRATION, MINES, MONETARY POLICY, MONEY SUPPLY, MULTILATERAL TRADE, NATIONAL INCOME, NEGOTIATIONS, PARTNERSHIP, POLLUTION, POVERTY ALLEVIATION, POVERTY LINE, PRIVATE SECTOR, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC SECTOR, PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYMENT, PUBLIC SERVICES, PUBLIC SPENDING, REAL GDP, REAL INTEREST RATE, REHABILITATION, RESOURCE ALLOCATION, RESOURCE USE, RISK FACTORS, RURAL WATER, RURAL WATER SECTOR, SANITATION, SANITATION SERVICES, SAVINGS, SCHOOLS, SERVICE DELIVERY, SERVICE PROVISION, SERVICES SECTOR, SOCIAL SERVICES, SUSTAINABLE WATER, TAX RATES, TAX REFORMS, TAX REVENUE, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRANSITION ECONOMIES, TRANSPARENCY, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, VALUE ADDED