Scaling up Aid or Scaling down : The Global Economic Crisis and Rwanda’s MDGs

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dc.creatorLofgren, Hans
dc.creatorNielsen, Hannah
dc.creatorEzemenari, Kene
dc.date2012-03-19T19:10:50Z
dc.date2012-03-19T19:10:50Z
dc.date2009-06-01
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T01:01:20Z
dc.descriptionRwanda is not on track to achieve most of the Millennium Development Goals at a time when hopes for scaled-up aid are mixed with concerns that, in the context of the global economic crisis, aid instead will be scaled down. This paper analyzes the effects of alternative scenarios for grant aid, government spending allocations (between infrastructure, agriculture, and human development), and government efficiency. The authors use an economy-wide model for development strategy analysis, Maquette for Millennium Development Goal Simulations. Under a plausible scenario for increased aid, annual growth in gross domestic product increases by as much as 0.6 percentage points relative to a baseline with a growth rate of 6 percent; by 2020, the headcount poverty rate declines to 32 percent, 3 percentage points lower than for the baseline. A plausible scenario for reduced aid leads to a symmetric growth reduction but a more pronounced increase in poverty, at 40 percent in 2020. When aid increases, the most positive growth and poverty reduction impacts occur if spending increases are allocated to infrastructure and agriculture; progress in human health and education is significant but weaker than if additional spending is focused on these areas. Given synergies and diminishing marginal returns from expansion in a limited area, the scenarios that may appear most attractive and politically feasible have a broad and balanced expansion across government functions, promoting both growth and human development.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090608143540
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/4151
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4958
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/414319
dc.languageEnglish
dc.relationPolicy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4958
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectADVERSE EFFECTS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL SECTOR
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectANNUAL GROWTH
dc.subjectBALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subjectBANK POLICY
dc.subjectBASE YEAR
dc.subjectBENCHMARK
dc.subjectBORROWING
dc.subjectCALCULATION
dc.subjectCAPITA INCOMES
dc.subjectCAPITAL STOCKS
dc.subjectCHILD MORTALITY
dc.subjectCOMMODITIES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectCONSTANT PRICES
dc.subjectCONSUMER
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION GROWTH
dc.subjectCONTRIBUTION
dc.subjectCONTRIBUTIONS
dc.subjectCOST INCREASES
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
dc.subjectDATA AVAILABILITY
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectDEBT STOCK
dc.subjectDECENTRALIZATION
dc.subjectDEPRECIATION
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
dc.subjectDIVERSIFICATION
dc.subjectDOMESTIC BORROWING
dc.subjectEARNINGS
dc.subjectECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectEDUCATIONAL INDICATORS
dc.subjectEDUCATIONAL SERVICES
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
dc.subjectEQUIPMENT
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectEXPORT PROMOTION
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectEXTENSION SERVICES
dc.subjectEXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subjectEXTERNAL FINANCING
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY
dc.subjectFINANCES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SUPPORT
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subjectFIXED INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subjectFOREIGN INTEREST
dc.subjectFULL EMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectGINI COEFFICIENT
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT BORROWING
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT DEBT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT FINANCES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT FINANCING
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT POLICIES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT POLICY
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectGROWTH PATTERN
dc.subjectGROWTH PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHEADCOUNT POVERTY
dc.subjectHEALTH CENTERS
dc.subjectHEALTH OUTCOMES
dc.subjectHIGH GROWTH
dc.subjectHIGH GROWTH RATE
dc.subjectHOLDING
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOMES
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SPHERE
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD WELFARE
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectHUMAN HEALTH
dc.subjectHUMAN RESOURCE
dc.subjectIMPERFECT SUBSTITUTES
dc.subjectIMPORT TARIFFS
dc.subjectINCOMES
dc.subjectINFANT
dc.subjectINFANT MORTALITY
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFLATION RATES
dc.subjectINTEREST PAYMENTS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINVESTING
dc.subjectINVESTMENT CLIMATE
dc.subjectINVESTMENT CLIMATE ASSESSMENT
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLABOR MARKETS
dc.subjectLEVEL OF DEBT
dc.subjectLEVELS OF EDUCATION
dc.subjectLIMITED RESOURCES
dc.subjectLIVING STANDARD
dc.subjectLIVING STANDARDS
dc.subjectLOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectLONG-RUN GROWTH
dc.subjectLOW-INCOME
dc.subjectLOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC STABILITY
dc.subjectMAINTENANCE COSTS
dc.subjectMARGINAL BENEFITS
dc.subjectMARGINAL COST
dc.subjectMARGINAL COSTS
dc.subjectMARGINAL RETURNS
dc.subjectMARKET PRICES
dc.subjectMATERNAL HEALTH
dc.subjectMATERNAL MORTALITY
dc.subjectMATERNAL MORTALITY RATE
dc.subjectMILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL
dc.subjectMILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS
dc.subjectMONETARY FUND
dc.subjectMORTALITY RATE
dc.subjectNATIONAL POVERTY LINE
dc.subjectNEGATIVE SHOCKS
dc.subjectOFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE
dc.subjectOPEN ECONOMY
dc.subjectORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE
dc.subjectPOLICY MAKERS
dc.subjectPOLICY OPTIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectPOPULATION SHARE
dc.subjectPOSITIVE EFFECTS
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATE
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATES
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASES
dc.subjectPRIMARY SCHOOL
dc.subjectPRIMARY SCHOOLING
dc.subjectPRIVATE CAPITAL
dc.subjectPRIVATE CAPITAL STOCK
dc.subjectPRIVATE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPRIVATE SAVINGS
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectPROGRESS
dc.subjectPROTECTIONISM
dc.subjectPROVISION OF EDUCATION
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCE
dc.subjectPUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR
dc.subjectPUBLIC WORKS
dc.subjectQUALITY OF EDUCATION
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectRECURRENT EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectREMITTANCES
dc.subjectRESERVES
dc.subjectRESPECT
dc.subjectRETURNS
dc.subjectRURAL AREAS
dc.subjectSAFE DRINKING WATER
dc.subjectSALES
dc.subjectSANITATION
dc.subjectSANITATION FACILITIES
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSAVINGS RATE
dc.subjectSECONDARY EDUCATION
dc.subjectSECONDARY SCHOOLING
dc.subjectSECTOR REFORMS
dc.subjectSERVICE DELIVERY
dc.subjectSIGNIFICANT IMPACT
dc.subjectSKILLED LABOR
dc.subjectSKILLS DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subjectSTOCK DATA
dc.subjectSTOCKS
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL CHANGE
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTECHNICAL ASSISTANCE
dc.subjectTERTIARY EDUCATION
dc.subjectTOTAL REVENUE
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectTRADE DEFICIT
dc.subjectTRANSPORTATION
dc.subjectTRUST FUNDS
dc.subjectUNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION
dc.subjectUTILITY MAXIMIZATION
dc.subjectVALUABLE
dc.subjectVALUE ADDED
dc.subjectVULNERABILITY
dc.subjectWAGE
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectWATER MANAGEMENT
dc.titleScaling up Aid or Scaling down : The Global Economic Crisis and Rwanda’s MDGs

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