Climate change can generate enemy‐free space for crop‐feeding herbivores

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dc.creatorWyckhuys, Kris A. G.
dc.creatorPozsgai, Gabor
dc.creatorFinch, Elizabeth A.
dc.creatorSeehausen, M. Lukas
dc.creatorZhang, Wei
dc.creatorGc, Yubak D.
dc.date2026-03
dc.date2026-03-17T17:09:40Z
dc.date2026-03-17T17:09:40Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:46:22Z
dc.descriptionCrop-feeding herbivores reduce the world's food output by approximately 20% and climate change (CC) is bound to deepen those losses. Endemic or introduced consumer organisms (i.e., biological control agents) naturally regulate herbivore populations and secure a quarter of crop yields, but are exceptionally susceptible to CC-related disturbances. Here, we use niche modeling for 14 globally-important herbivores (or pests) to forecast how richness of the associated biological control agents of each pest—as a proxy of service strength—may alter under a CC-driven range expansion. Results show that 57%–100% of pests are bound to lose parasitoid and predator associates. The cassava mealybug Phenacoccus manihoti may experience a 27% decline in parasitoid pressure, whereas cosmopolitan pests of cereal and horticultural crops benefit from 6% to 7% drops in predator pressure. Such ‘enemy release’ can possibly exacerbate pest-induced yield losses and threaten future harvests. Ant-pest associations change in both directions, implying that pests may either face strengthened or weakened biological control. For pests spreading towards or within food-deficit regions in the equatorial belt, parasitoid declines and increases in ant pressure are most pronounced. By exposing the fragility of biodiversity-based ecological safeguards in farmland, our work calls for urgent, integrative, and nature-friendly solutions to uphold food security under environmental change.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/182153
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/114179
dc.languageen
dc.publisherWiley
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceWyckhuys, Kris A. G.; Pozsgai, Gabor; Finch, Elizabeth A.; Seehausen, M. Lukas; Zhang, Wei; and Gc, Yubak D. 2026. Climate change can generate enemy‐free space for crop‐feeding herbivores. Global Change Biology 13(3): e70775. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70775
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectherbivores
dc.subjectagroecology
dc.subjectbiodiversity conservation
dc.subjectbiotic factors
dc.subjectintensification
dc.subjectinsect control
dc.subjectsustainable agriculture
dc.titleClimate change can generate enemy‐free space for crop‐feeding herbivores
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)