Kyrgyz Republic : Growth Rebounds, Risks Remain

World Bank

Kyrgyz Republic : Growth Rebounds, Risks Remain

Autores

World Bank

Editor

Washington, DC

Descripción

The Kyrgyz Republic's three party coalition has tackled a number of events during 2013, including mayoral elections in the country's biggest cities Bishkek and Osh road blockages around Kumtor, the country's largest gold mine; as well as tense negotiations on the future of the mine; and clashes in the south of the country. The government has navigated through these difficult times, quashing a motion of no confidence in parliament. An agreement between the Kyrgyz Republic and Centerra Inc. the majority stakeholder in Kumtor was accepted by parliament in early 2014. A surge in gold output and solid growth in the non-gold sectors contributed to an impressive 10.5 percent expansion of the Kyrgyz economy in 2013. Smaller increases in food prices than in recent years, and relatively stable energy prices helped bring inflation down. Expenditure controls and robust revenue outturns have brought the fiscal deficit down to 3.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Preliminary estimates suggest the trade deficit and current account deficit remained high in 2013. Medium term growth is expected to moderate to 5 percent, however, a number of risks remain. The exceptional performance of gold output in 2013 is unlikely to be repeated in 2014. The rest of the economy is expected to continue expanding at 5 to 6 percent. A slowdown in the Russian economy, declining gold prices, and uncertainty created by the recent fluctuations in the exchange rate can adversely affect this outcome. This report presents recent political developments; recent economic developments; and economic and structural policies.

Palabras clave

ACCOUNTING, ACCOUNTING RULES, AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRICULTURE, ASSET RATIO, ASSETS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANKING SECTOR, BARRIER, BROAD MONEY, BUDGET DEFICIT, BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT, CAPITAL ADEQUACY, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CENTRAL BANK, CHECKS, COAL, COAL PRICES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY MARKETS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION, CONSUMPTION BASKET, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CORE INFLATION, CPI, CREDIT EXPANSION, CREDIT GROWTH, CURRENCY, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CUSTOMS UNION, DEBT FORGIVENESS, DEBT SERVICE, DEBT SERVICE RATIO, DEBT SUSTAINABILITY, DEPOSIT, DEPOSITS, DEVALUATION, DEVALUATIONS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT BANK, DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC INFLATION, DOMESTIC PRICES, DRAG ON GROWTH, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMICS, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKETS, ENVIRONMENTAL, EQUIPMENT, EQUITY RETURN, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORTERS, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL DEMAND, FAIR MARKET VALUE, FARMS, FINANCIAL SYSTEMS, FINANCING REQUIREMENTS, FISCAL BALANCE, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL POLICY, FISHERIES, FIXED ASSETS, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FORECASTS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, FOREIGN LOANS, FRAUD, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GINI COEFFICIENT, GOLD, GOLD PRICE, GOLD PRICES, GOVERNANCE INDICATORS, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS, GROWTH IN TRADE, GROWTH RATE, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPORT, IMPORT GROWTH, IMPORT PRICES, IMPORTS, INCOME, INCOME TAX, INCOME TAXES, INFLATION, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, INFORMAL ECONOMY, INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, INTEREST RATES, INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT LEVELS, INVESTMENT PROJECTS, INVESTOR CONFIDENCE, JOINT VENTURE, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LIQUIDITY, LOCAL CURRENCY, LOW-INCOME COUNTRY, M2, MARKET SHARE, MARKET VALUE, MATURITY, METALS, MICRO ENTERPRISES, MINES, MONETARY AGGREGATES, MONETARY POLICY, MULTIPLIER EFFECTS, NATIONAL BANK, NATIONAL SAVINGS, NET EXPORTS, NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE, NOMINAL WAGE, NON-PERFORMING LOAN, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, NONPERFORMING LOANS, NPL, OIL, OIL PRICES, OUTPUT, OUTTURNS, PENSIONS, POLICY RESPONSES, POLITICAL STABILITY, POLITICAL UPHEAVAL, POPULATION GROWTH, POVERTY LEVELS, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE INDEX, PRICE INFLATION, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT, PRODUCERS, PRODUCTIVITY, PROPERTY RIGHTS, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC FINANCE, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL WAGES, REMITTANCE, REMITTANCES, RETURN, RETURN ON ASSETS, RETURNS, RULE OF LAW, SHARE OF INVESTMENT, SHARE PRICES, SLOWDOWN, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, STRUCTURAL REFORMS, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, TAX, TAX COLLECTION, TAX LIABILITIES, TAX POLICY, TAX RATE, TAX REGIME, TAX REVENUES, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TERMS OF TRADE, TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT, TOTAL INVESTMENT, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE FACILITATION, TRADE LOSSES, TRADE POLICY, TRADE REGIME, TRADING, TRADITIONAL MARKETS, TRANSPARENCY, TREATY, UNCERTAINTIES, UNCERTAINTY, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, VALUE ADDED, VOLATILITY, VULNERABILITY TO SHOCKS, WAGE GROWTH, WAGES, WEIGHTS, WHOLESALE MARKETS, WORLD TRADE, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, WTO