ECONOMIC CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS

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dc.creatorDorfman, Jeffrey H.
dc.creatorMcIntosh, Christopher S.
dc.date2017-04-01T19:00:20Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-09T03:12:53Z
dc.descriptionForecasts of economic time series are often evaluated according to their accuracy as measured by either quantitative precision or qualitative reliability. We argue that consumers purchase forecasts for the potential utility gains from utilizing them, not for their accuracy. Using Monte Carlo techniques to incorporate the temporal heteroskedasticity inherent in asset returns, the expected utility of a set of qualitative forecasts is simulated for corn and soybean futures prices. Monetary values for forecasts of various reliability levels are derived. The method goes beyond statistical forecast evaluation, allowing individuals to incorporate their own utility function and trading system into valuing a set of asset price forecasts.
dc.identifierdoi:10.22004/ag.econ.15060
dc.identifierhttps://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/15060/files/29020337.pdf
dc.identifierhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/15060
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/528595
dc.languageeng
dc.publisher
dc.sourcehttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/15060
dc.titleECONOMIC CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS
dc.typeText

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