Unemployment and Worker-Firm Matching : Theory and Evidence from East and West Europe
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The paper tests three hypotheses about
the causes of unemployment in the Central-East European
transition economies and in a benchmark market economy
(Western part of Germany). The first hypothesis (H1) is that
unemployment is caused by inefficient matching. Hypothesis 2
(H2) is that unemployment is caused by low demand.
Hypothesis 3 (H3) is that restructuring is at work. Our
estimates suggest that the west and east German parts of
Germany, Czech Republic and Slovakia are consistent with H2
and H3. Hungary provides limited support to all three
hypotheses. Poland is consistent with H1. The economies in
question hence contain one broad group of countries and one
or two special cases. The group comprises the Czech
Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic and (possibly) East
Germany. These countries resemble West Germany in that they
display increasing returns to scale in matching and
unemployment appears to be driven by restructuring and low
demand. The East German case is complex because of its major
active labor market policies and a negative trend in
efficiency in matching. In some sense, East Germany
resembles more Poland, which in addition to restructuring
and low demand for labor appears to suffer from a structural
mismatch reflected in relatively low returns to scale in
matching. Finally, our data provide evidence that goes
counter to one of the main predictions of the theories of
transition, namely that the turnover (inflow) rate in the
transition countries would rise dramatically at the start of
the transition, be temporarily very high and gradually
decline and approach the level observed in otherwise similar
market economies such as West Germany.
Palabras clave
ACCESS TO INFORMATION, ACTIVE EMPLOYMENT, ACTIVE EMPLOYMENT POLICY, ACTIVE LABOR, ACTIVE LABOR MARKET, ACTIVE LABOR MARKET POLICIES, ACTIVE LABOR MARKET PROGRAMS, ACTIVE LABOUR, ACTIVE LABOUR MARKET, ACTIVE LABOUR MARKET POLICIES, AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRICULTURE, BENCHMARK, BOND, BUSINESS CYCLES, CENTRAL BANK, COMPLICATIONS, CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE, CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA, DEPRECIATION, DEPRECIATIONS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DISEQUILIBRIUM, ECONOMETRICS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC STRUCTURES, ECONOMIC TRANSITION, ELASTICITY, EQUILIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT, ESTIMATED PARAMETERS, EXCHANGE RATE, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, EXTERNALITIES, FIRM LEVEL, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL SUBSIDIES, FUTURE RESEARCH, GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES, HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT, HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, HIGH WAGE, HUMAN CAPITAL, INCOME, INCREASING RETURNS, INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE, INEFFICIENCY, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, JOB CREATION, JOB DESTRUCTION, JOB SEARCH, JOB SHIFTS, JOB VACANCIES, JOBS, LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS, LABOR MARKET INDICATORS, LABOR MARKET INSTITUTIONS, LABOR MARKET TURNOVER, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR MOBILITY, LABOR OFFICE, LABOR TURNOVER, LABOUR, LABOUR FORCE, LABOUR MARKET, LABOUR MARKETS, LABOUR OFFICE, LOW INTEREST RATES, LOW UNEMPLOYMENT, LOW UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MARKET ECONOMIES, MARKET ECONOMY, MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA, NATIONAL COUNCIL, NATURAL GAS, NEW JOBS, OPEN UNEMPLOYMENT, OPTIMIZATION, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POPULATION SETTLEMENTS, POSITIVE EXTERNALITY, PRIVATE SECTOR, PROBABILITIES, PROBABILITY, PROGRESS, PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYMENT, RECESSION, REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT, RESPECT, RISING UNEMPLOYMENT, SAFETY, SAFETY NET, SCALE EFFECT, SCALE EFFECTS, SERVICE SECTOR, SKILL GROUPS, SOCIAL POLICIES, STOCKS, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, TRAINING PROGRAMS, TRANSITION ECONOMIES, UNEMPLOYED, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION, UNEMPLOYMENT EQUILIBRIUM, UNEMPLOYMENT OUTCOME, UNEMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES, UNEMPLOYMENT PROBLEM, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, VALUABLE, WAGE LEVEL, WORKER, WORKERS