Natural Disasters and Growth : Going beyond the Averages
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There has been a steady increase in the
occurrence of natural disasters. Yet their effect on
economic growth remains unclear, with some studies reporting
negative, and others indicating no, or even positive
effects. These seemingly contradictory findings can be
reconciled by exploring the effects of natural disasters on
growth separately by disaster and economic sector. This is
consistent with the insights from traditional models of
economic growth, where production depends on total factor
productivity, the provision of intermediate outputs, and the
capital-labor ratio, as well as the existence of important
intersector linkages. Applying a dynamic Generalized Method
of Moments panel estimator to a 1961-2005 cross-country
panel, three major insights emerge. First, disasters affect
economic growth - but not always negatively, and differently
across disasters and economic sectors. Second, although
moderate disasters can have a positive growth effect in some
sectors, severe disasters do not. Third, growth in
developing countries is more sensitive to natural disasters
- more sectors are affected and the magnitudes are non-trivial.
Palabras clave
ABUNDANCE, AGGREGATE OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, ANNUAL GROWTH, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, BANKING CRISIS, BUSINESS CYCLES, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL INCREASES, CASUALTIES, CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGY, CLIMATE CHANGE, CONSUMER PRICE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, COUNTRY CASE, COUNTRY REGRESSIONS, COVARIANCE MATRIX, CRED, CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS, DAMAGES, DATABASE ON DISASTERS, DEATH TOLL, DECLARATION, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING WORLD, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, DISASTER, DISASTER ASSISTANCE, DISASTER REDUCTION, DISASTER RISK, DISASTER RISK REDUCTION, DISASTER TYPE, DISASTER TYPES, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT, DOMESTIC CREDIT, DROUGHT, DROUGHTS, DYNAMIC PANEL, EARTHQUAKE, EARTHQUAKES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC STUDIES, ECONOMICS, ECONOMICS LETTERS, EMPIRICAL LITERATURE, EMPIRICAL RESULTS, EMPLOYMENT EQUATIONS, ERROR TERM, ESTIMATION METHOD, ESTIMATION RESULTS, EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, EXTERNAL CONDITIONS, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FAMINE, FINANCIAL DEPTH, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED EFFECTS, FLOOD, FLOODING, FLOODS, GLOBAL CONDITIONS, GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH DETERMINANTS, GROWTH EFFECT, GROWTH EFFECTS, GROWTH MODEL, GROWTH PATTERN, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH REGRESSION, GROWTH REGRESSION EQUATION, GROWTH REGRESSIONS, HIGH INFLATION, HOUSEHOLD DATA, IMPACT OF DISASTERS, INCOME, INCREASE GROWTH, INCREASES GROWTH, INDUSTRIAL SECTOR, INFLATION RATE, INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE, INFRASTRUCTURE PROVISION, INSTRUMENTAL-VARIABLE, INSURANCE, INSURANCE COMPANIES, INTERACTION TERM, INTERACTION TERMS, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, LAGGED DEPENDENT, LAGGED LEVELS, LAGGED VALUES, LEVEL OF OUTPUT PER CAPITA, LONG RUN, LONG-RUN GROWTH, MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION, MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY, MARGINAL PRODUCT, MARGINAL RETURNS, MONETARY ECONOMICS, NATURAL DISASTER, NATURAL DISASTERS, NATURAL HAZARDS, NEGATIVE EFFECT, NEGATIVE IMPACT, NEGATIVE SIGN, 0 HYPOTHESIS, OUTPUT GROWTH, PER CAPITA GROWTH, POINT ESTIMATES, POLICY RESEARCH, POVERTY REDUCING, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRIVATE DOMESTIC, PRIVATE DOMESTIC CREDIT, PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE, RECONSTRUCTION, REGRESSION MODEL, RELATIVE IMPORTANCE, RELIEF, RELIEF ACTIVITIES, REVERSE CAUSATION, REVIEW OF ECONOMICS, RICH ECONOMIES, SAVING RATE, SAVINGS, SERIAL CORRELATION, SHARP REDUCTION, SIGNIFICANT EFFECT, SOCIAL PROTECTION, STABILIZATION POLICIES, STANDARD GROWTH DETERMINANTS, STORM, STORMS, TRADE OPENNESS, TRADE SHOCKS, TRANSITIONAL CONVERGENCE, TYPE OF DISASTER, UNITED STATES AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT