Extreme Weather and Poverty Risk
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper investigates the effects of
multiple weather shocks on household welfare in Mozambique,
as well as some of the coping responses and price mechanisms
at play. The analysis employs a triple-difference strategy
that exploits variation in the shocks across space, time,
and cropping cycles. The findings demonstrate high levels of
vulnerability across various weather risks. Experiencing a
cyclone, flood, or drought leads to a drop of up to 25-30
percent in per capita food consumption and around 0.4 fewer
meals per day per person. Poverty increased by 12 and 17.5
percentage points in two of the three events analyzed. Human
capital accumulation, as measured by school participation
and morbidity, is disrupted. Households follow risk-coping
strategies, such as increasing the labor supply of their
children or selling assets, which entail partial protection
in the aftermath of the shock at the cost of lower income
growth in the future. In disentangling the channels, the
paper shows that maize prices exhibit higher volatility in
food markets that are spatially close to the most affected
areas. The results are robust to several robustness checks,
including analysis of bias from selective migration, and
indicate that household welfare and economic mobility in
low-income environments are constrained by uninsured weather risks.
Palabras clave
POVERTY, HUMAN WELFARE, DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT, WEATHER SHOCKS, NATURAL DISASTER, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, CROP PRODUCTION, DROUGHT, FLOODS, CYCLONE, RISK-COPING, FOOD MARKET, CHILD LABOR, SCHOOL PARTICIPATION