Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change
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This paper develops a methodology for
regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas
that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan,
a mountainous country highly vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change. The authors construct the vulnerability
index as a function of exposure to climate variability and
natural disasters, sensitivity to the impacts of that
exposure, and capacity to adapt to ongoing and future
climatic changes. This index can inform decisions about
adaptation responses that might benefit from an assessment
of how and why vulnerability to climate change varies
regionally and it may therefore prove a useful tool for
policy analysts interested in how to ensure pro-poor
adaptation in developing countries. Index results for
Tajikistan suggest that vulnerability varies according to
socio-economic and institutional development in ways that do
not follow directly from exposure or elevation: geography is
not destiny. The results indicate that urban areas are by
far the least vulnerable, while the eastern Region of
Republican Subordination mountain zone is the most
vulnerable. Prime agricultural valleys are also relatively
more vulnerable, implying that adaptation planners do not
necessarily face a trade-off between defending vulnerable
areas and defending economically important areas. These
results lend support to at least some elements of current
adaptation practice.
Palabras clave
ADAPTATION, ADAPTATION DEFICIT, ADAPTATION EFFORTS, ADAPTATION INTERVENTIONS, ADAPTATION PLANNERS, ADAPTATION PLANNING, ADAPTATION PRACTICE, ADAPTATION PROGRAM, ADAPTATION RESPONSES, ADAPTATION STRATEGIES, ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE, ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE, ADAPTING, ADAPTIVE ACTIONS, ADAPTIVE BEHAVIORS, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY, ADAPTIVE RESPONSES, ALTITUDE, ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE, CALCULATION, CIVIL WAR, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY, CLIMATE EVENTS, CLIMATE INVESTMENT, CLIMATE MODELS, CLIMATE POLICY, CLIMATE RESILIENCE, CLIMATE RISKS, CLIMATE VULNERABILITY, CLIMATIC CHANGE, CLIMATIC CHANGES, CROP DIVERSIFICATION, CROP LAND, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DISASTER RISK, DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT, DRY MONTHS, EARTHQUAKE, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC COSTS, ECONOMIC STATUS, ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY, EXTREME TEMPERATURES, EXTREME VALUES, FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS, FOOD INSECURITY, FOOD SECURITY, FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGES, HOT MONTHS, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY, HOUSEHOLD LEVEL, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, INCOME, INFORMATION SYSTEMS, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, IPCC, LAND MANAGEMENT, LAND USE, LEVEL OF EDUCATION, MALADAPTATION, METEOROLOGICAL DATA, MIGRANT, MIGRANT WORKERS, MIGRANTS, MIGRATION, MORTALITY, MORTALITY RATE, NATIONAL LEVEL, NATURAL CLIMATIC DISASTERS, NATURAL DISASTER, NATURAL DISASTERS, NATURAL RESOURCE, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POPULATION DENSITY, PRECIPITATION, PROGRESS, PUBLIC SERVICE, PUBLIC SERVICES, REMITTANCE, REMITTANCES, RESPECT, RISK MANAGEMENT, RURAL AREAS, SERVICE AREAS, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, SOCIAL LIMITS TO ADAPTATION, SOCIAL POLICIES, SOCIAL PROTECTION MECHANISMS, SOCIAL VULNERABILITY, SOCIAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS, TEMPERATURE VARIATION, URBAN AREAS, URBAN POPULATION, URBANIZATION, VULNERABILITY, VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE