An Empirical Economic Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zambia
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This report assesses the economic
impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia, using
the Ricardian method. A multiple linear regression model
with net revenue per hectare as response variable has been
fitted with climate, hydrological, soil, and socioeconomic
variables as explanatory variables. There is one main
cropping season in Zambia, lasting from November to April.
Crop production in this period depends solely on rains.
Considering crop progression in three stages-germination,
growing, and maturing, which require different amounts of
water and temperature-the climate variables included in the
model are long-term averages of the temperature and wetness
index for the periods November to December, January to
February, and March to April. Assuming a nonlinear
relationship of farm revenue with the climate variables,
quadratic terms for climate variables were also included in
the model. The results indicate that most socioeconomic
variables are not significant, whereas some climate
variables and the corresponding quadratic variables are
significant in the model. Further findings are that an
increase in the November-December mean temperature and a
decrease in the January-February mean rainfall have negative
impacts on net farm revenue, whereas an increase in the
January-February mean temperature and mean annual runoff has
a positive impact.
Palabras clave
ADVERSE IMPACTS, AGRICULTURAL INPUTS, AGRICULTURAL LAND, AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS, ATMOSPHERE, CARBON, CARBON DIOXIDE, CASSAVA, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE FORECASTS, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATE VARIABLES, CLIMATE ZONES, CLIMATES, CLIMATIC RESEARCH, CLIMATIC RESEARCH UNIT, CLIMATOLOGY, CLOUDS, COMMERCIAL FARMERS, COTTON, CROP, CROP FORECASTING, CROP PRODUCTION, CROP VARIETIES, CROPPING, CROPS, CULTIVATION, DESERTIFICATION, DROUGHT, DRY SEASON, DRY SEASONS, ECOLOGICAL ZONE, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, FAO, FARM, FARM HOUSEHOLDS, FARM PRODUCE, FARMER, FARMERS, FARMING, FARMING SYSTEMS, FARMS, FERTILIZATION, FERTILIZER, FISHERIES, FLOODS, FOOD SECURITY, FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE, GDP, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY, GLOBAL WARMING, GRAIN, GRAZING, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, GREENHOUSE GASES, GROUNDNUTS, GROWING SEASON, HARVESTING, HECTARES OF LAND, HYDROLOGICAL DATA, HYDROLOGY, HYDROMETEOROLOGY, IRRIGATION, LABOR FORCE, LAND USE, LAND VALUE, LANDS, MAIZE, MAIZE PRODUCTION, MARGINAL REVENUE, METEOROLOGICAL DATA, METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS, MILLET, NATURAL RESOURCES, PADDY, PLANTING, POLLUTANTS, PRECIPITATION, PRODUCE, RAINFALL, RAINFED AGRICULTURE, RANGELAND, RICE, RUNOFF, SATELLITES, SEA, SEAS, SEED, SEED BANKS, SEED COTTON, SEEDS, SMALL-SCALE FARMERS, SOCIOECONOMIC VARIABLES, SOIL, SOIL TYPE, SOIL TYPES, SOILS, SORGHUM, SOYA BEANS, SUNFLOWER, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, SWEET POTATOES, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE CHANGE, TOBACCO, TOTAL REVENUE, TROPICAL CLIMATE, VEGETATION, WATER HARVESTING, WATER RESOURCES, WATER SHORTAGES, WEATHER, WET SEASON, WHEAT