World Food and Agriculture to 2030/50: Highlights and Views from Mid-2009
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We examine the long-term projections in the FAO Study World Agriculture: Towards 2030/50, prepared in the years 2003-05 (from historical data to 2001 and base year 1999/20013) for selected broad country- and commodity-group aggregates. An overview of the Study’s findings is attached as Annex. The objective of the examination is to establish if and to what extent the projections are still valid as predictions of what may be in store in world food and agriculture to mid-century. We test th e projections against (a) actual outcomes, as far as available data permit, in the first eight years of the projection period (to 2008), and (b) against the just-completed 10-year projections 2009-2018 of OECD/FAO, both with and without the quantities of crops used as biofuels feedstocks. On both counts, but without accounting for the impact of biofuels (not included in the Study), the projections have been found to be still broadly valid at the level of the aggregates considered.