Climate Change Impacts on the Blue Economy in Morocco: Prospects for Jobs in Coastal Tourism
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Washington, DC: World Bank
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Morocco is committed to unlocking the potential of its blue economy, as reflected in its New Development Model, which emphasizes the sustainable use of marine and coastal resources along the Mediterranean and Atlantic coasts. Coastal areas already play a central economic role, hosting most of the country’s industry, generating a large share of GDP, and providing over half of national employment. Among blue economy sectors, coastal tourism is especially important, contributing significantly to GDP, foreign exchange earnings, and employment, with Agadir, Tangier-Tetouan, and Casablanca serving as key tourism hubs. However, climate change presents a growing threat to this sector through rising temperatures, sea level rise, coastal flooding, erosion, wildfires, ocean warming, and disease risks, all of which may reduce the attractiveness and viability of coastal destinations. To better understand these risks, an analysis was conducted under the Blue Economy Program for Results framework to estimate how climate change could affect tourism demand and jobs. Using spending patterns of tourists in comparable climatic zones and input-output analysis, the study found that tourist expenditures could decline by 8–18 percent by 2035. This could lead to substantial losses across the coastal tourism value chain, with restaurants, hotels, entertainment, and transport most affected, and coastal tourism jobs potentially declining by as much as 32 percent.
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CLIMATE ACTION, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, BLUE ECONOMY, MARINE AND COASTAL RESOURCES, COASTAL TOURISM, CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS