Does Conditionality Generate Heterogeneity and Regressivity in Program Impacts? The Progresa Experience
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We study both empirically and theoretically the consequences of introducing
a conditional cash transfer scheme for the distribution of program impacts.
Intuitively, if the conditioned-on good is normal, then better-offhouseholds
tend to receive a larger positive impact. I formalize this insight by means of
a simple model of child labor, applying the Nash-Bargaining approach as the
solution concept. A series of tests for heterogeneity in program impacts are
developed and applied to Progresa, an anti-poverty program in Mexico. It can
be concluded that this program exhibits a lot of heterogeneity in treatment
effects. Consistent with the model, and under the assumption of rank preservation,
program impacts are distributionally regressive, although positive, within
the treated population