South East Europe Regular Economic Report, January 2015 : Coping with Floods, Strengthening Growth
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Coping with Floods, Strengthening
Growth, from the South East Europe Regular Economic Report
explains that South East Europe s (SEE6) s economy is
estimated to have stagnated in 2014 on the back of
flood-induced contraction in Serbia and a sharp slowdown in
Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro. The regional economy
grew 0.2 percent in 2014, insufficient to improve living
standards or to make a dent in the region s high
unemployment rate. External demand for SEE6 exports was a
key positive contributor to economic growth in 2014 as the
region s exports gained market share, despite the weak
Eurozone performance and disappointing global recovery.
Domestic demand remained subdued because of delayed or
reduced public and private investments and weak consumption.
Devastating floods in large parts of the region further
weighed on the SEE6 economic activity in 2014. The weak
regional economic performance masks notable differences
among the SEE6 countries. In 2014, the Serbian economy is
estimated to have contracted by 2 percent for a third time
since the global crisis and Bosnia and Herzegovina is
stagnating. Economic growth rates in Kosovo and Montenegro
are estimated to have moderated in 2014. Only Albania and
FYR Macedonia showed signs of a more sustained recovery on
the back of increasing exports, particularly in the second
half of the year. The floods were the main culprit behind
the weak domestic demand and the overall sluggish economic
performance in SEE6. Robust exports only partially offset
the SEE6 s weak domestic demand, leaving external imbalances
in vulnerability. The average fiscal deficit in SEE6 is
estimated to have increased by 0.4 percent of GDP to 4.2
percent in 2014 due to faster growth in expenditures than
revenues. The SEE6 region as a whole is projected to grow
1.3 percent in 2015, supported by a slowly recovering
external demand, especially in Europe, and stabilization of
international energy prices at around current levels.
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