A theoretical analysis of illegal wood harvesting as predation – with two Ugandan illustrations
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By assuming a forest growing logistically and a local population that
harvests wood illegally in a manner similar to predation, a bio-economic
model gives the following results: 1) when local population is very low,
optimal deterring effort is zero; 2) as long as the population is sufficiently
low, no deterring effort is required to avoid complete deforestation; 3) when
population is above minimum threshold, optimal deterring effort is
determined by the cost of deterrence relative to the value of wood; 4) when
human population grows above a higher threshold, deterring effort must be
greater than zero to avoid complete deforestation; 5) the larger the
population grows, minimum deterring effort to avoid exhaustion approaches
maximum effort; 6) when human population is very large, the relative cost
of deterrence must be low, or the price of wood very high, to make
deterrence worth wile.