Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models

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dc.creatorThomas, Timothy S.
dc.creatorRobertson, Richard D.
dc.date2024-02-16
dc.date2024-02-16T21:24:53Z
dc.date2024-02-16T21:24:53Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:03:21Z
dc.descriptionIn this paper we present analysis on the recent historical trend in agriculture in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region, along with analysis of recent historical trends in temperature and precipitation. We also present 5 climate models and describe the possible future climates associated with these. We use these climate models with crop models -- for seven crops -- and bioeconomic models to further assess the impact on agricultural productivity throughout the region and how the agricultural sector will transform through 2050. While we evaluate seven crops in detail, we note the key role that maize plays for the region, and we assess -- considering the regional and global impact of climate change -- how the role of maize will change over time and whether the change will be rapid enough to shift regional agriculture into a more vibrant sector. We find that while the relative importance of maize to farmers in the region will decline, out to 2050 maize will remain the dominant crop. Additional policies and investments will need to be implemented if the goal is to hasten the transition to higher value or more nutritious crops.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/139503
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/93252
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/9780896292055
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/9780896292086
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/148024
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134930
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceThomas, Timothy S.; and Robertson, Richard D. 2024. Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2239. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/139503
dc.subjectbioeconomic models
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectmaize
dc.subjectcrop modelling
dc.subjectagricultural production
dc.subjectmodelling
dc.subjectclimate models
dc.titleClimate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models
dc.typeWorking Paper

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)