Multiple Horizons and Information in USDA Production Forecasts

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dc.creatorSanders, Dwight R.
dc.creatorManfredo, Mark R.
dc.date2017-04-01T19:41:47Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-09T03:26:16Z
dc.descriptionUSDA livestock production forecasts are evaluated for information across multiple horizons using the direct test developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez. Forecasts are explicitly tested for rationality (unbiased and efficient) as well as for incremental information out to three quarters ahead. The results suggest that although the forecasts are often not rational, they typically do provide the forecast user with unique information at each horizon. Turkey and milk production forecasts tended to provide the most consistent performance, while beef production forecasts provided little information beyond the two quarter horizon.
dc.identifierdoi:10.22004/ag.econ.18997
dc.identifierhttps://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/18997/files/cp06sa01.pdf
dc.identifierhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/18997
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/532527
dc.languageeng
dc.publisher
dc.sourcehttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/18997
dc.titleMultiple Horizons and Information in USDA Production Forecasts
dc.typeText

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