Policy Changes and Modelling Challenges: Insights from PEM Analysis
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As agricultural policies continue to evolve away from traditional modes of support towards
policies based upon or primarily influencing the market for land, it has become necessary to
reconsider the way such policies are reflected in models. We demonstrate how the structure of
land supply is constructed in the Policy Evaluation Model (PEM), and illustrate some potential
options for representing land or historical entitlement-based programs using this model. Despite
some basic similarities, the different choices for policy representation lead to significantly
different model results. No policy may be considered to be entirely non-distorting of production
decisions.