Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change

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dc.creatorVervoort, Joost M.
dc.creatorThornton, Philip K.
dc.creatorKristjanson, Patricia M.
dc.creatorFörch, Wiebke
dc.creatorEricksen, Polly J.
dc.creatorKok, K.
dc.creatorIngram, John S.I.
dc.creatorHerrero, Mario
dc.creatorPalazzo, Amanda
dc.creatorHelfgott, Ariella E.S.
dc.creatorWilkinson, A.
dc.creatorHavlík, Petr
dc.creatorMason-D'Croz, Daniel
dc.creatorJost, Christine
dc.date2014-09
dc.date2014-04-07T14:49:08Z
dc.date2014-04-07T14:49:08Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T16:38:10Z
dc.descriptionThis paper examines the development and use of scenarios as an approach to guide action in multi-level, multi-actor adaptation contexts such as food security under climate change. Three challenges are highlighted: (1) ensuring the appropriate scope for action; (2) moving beyond intervention-based decision guidance; and (3) developing long-term shared capacity for strategic planning. To overcome these challenges we have applied explorative scenarios and normative back-casting with stakeholders from different sectors at the regional level in East Africa. We then applied lessons about appropriate scope, enabling adaptation pathways, and developing strategic planning capacity to scenarios processes in multiple global regions. Scenarios were created to have a broad enough scope to be relevant to diverse actors, and then adapted by different actor groups to ensure their salience in specific decision contexts. The initial strategy for using the scenarios by bringing a range of actors together to explore new collaborative proposals had limitations as well as strengths versus the application of scenarios for specific actor groups and existing decision pathways. Scenarios development and use transitioned from an intervention-based process to an embedded process characterized by continuous engagement. Feasibility and long-term sustainability could be ensured by having decision makers own the process and focusing on developing strategic planning capacity within their home organizations.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/35231
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/128839
dc.languageen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceVervoort, J.M., Thornton, P.K., Kristjanson, P., Förch, W., Ericksen, P.J., Kok, K., Ingram, J.S.I., Herrero, M., Palazzo, A., Helfgott, A.E.S., Wilkinson, A., Havlík, P., Mason-D’Croz, D. and Jost, C. 2014. Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change. Global Environmental Change 28: 383-394
dc.subjectresource management
dc.subjecttechnological changes
dc.subjecteconomic development
dc.subjectcommodities
dc.subjectclimate
dc.subjectmalnutrition
dc.subjectecology
dc.subjectnutrition
dc.subjecttrade
dc.subjectfood supply
dc.subjectprotected areas
dc.subjectfood security
dc.subjectscales
dc.subjectprices
dc.subjectcommodity markets
dc.subjectfood systems
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.titleChallenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Investigaciones Pecuarias (ILRI)