THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION - 9 November 1998
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This report is based on information gathered during an FAO fact-finding mission to the Russian Federation in mid-October 1998. Discussions were held with officials, food traders, research institutes and private market analysts. The report attempts to shed light on the prospects for food and feed supply, demand and trade until mid 1999, highlighting possible areas of food insecurity risk. The analysis is necessarily tentative as much of the existing data is disputed and the food markets are in a state of flux, following the rouble devaluation in August and the financial crisis. Drought and high temperatures from mid June to August are the main causes of a sharp drop in domestic cereal production this year. The total cereal crop (including 1997/98 winter and spring crops) is provisionally forecast at around 50 million tonnes compared to 86.7 million tonnes in 1997 and a 1993-1997 average of 73 million tonnes. The decline also reflects underlying downward trends in planted area and yields. Large carryover stocks have helped to protect aggregate feed supplies from the production shock, and domestic feed demand is expected to continue its downward course.